Abdul El-Sayed defeated Mike Rogers in Michigan’s 2026 U.S. Senate race by a margin that settled near seven percentage points once nearly all ballots were tallied. Election-night results from population centers including Wayne County, combined with elevated turnout among younger voters and Arab American communities, produced consistent leads that aligned with the 6-9% outcome now priced at 98% by traders. Pre-election polling averages had shown a narrower contest, yet final certified shares exceeded those forecasts by roughly three points. With over 96% of expected votes reported, the remaining uncounted ballots are concentrated in areas unlikely to move the margin outside the current bin. Late certifications, recounts, or official adjustments remain the only realistic paths that could still alter the precise final spread.