Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn following his January 2026 capture during a U.S. military operation in Caracas. He and his wife face narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York, to which they have pleaded not guilty. No bail application has been filed, and a judge has set trial for June 2027 after a July 2026 pretrial hearing. Key factors shaping trader views include the severity of the federal indictment, standard U.S. detention practices for such cases, ongoing pretrial motions, and the November 2026 hearing date. Resolution would likely hinge on any bail ruling, plea agreement, or case dismissal before the trial window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,687,688 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
December 31
7%
$2,687,688 Vol.
December 31
$292,239 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn following his January 2026 capture during a U.S. military operation in Caracas. He and his wife face narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York, to which they have pleaded not guilty. No bail application has been filed, and a judge has set trial for June 2027 after a July 2026 pretrial hearing. Key factors shaping trader views include the severity of the federal indictment, standard U.S. detention practices for such cases, ongoing pretrial motions, and the November 2026 hearing date. Resolution would likely hinge on any bail ruling, plea agreement, or case dismissal before the trial window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$2,687,688End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn following his January 2026 capture during a U.S. military operation in Caracas. He and his wife face narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York, to which they have pleaded not guilty. No bail application has been filed, and a judge has set trial for June 2027 after a July 2026 pretrial hearing. Key factors shaping trader views include the severity of the federal indictment, standard U.S. detention practices for such cases, ongoing pretrial motions, and the November 2026 hearing date. Resolution would likely hinge on any bail ruling, plea agreement, or case dismissal before the trial window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,687,688End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn following his January 2026 capture during a U.S. military operation in Caracas. He and his wife face narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York, to which they have pleaded not guilty. No bail application has been filed, and a judge has set trial for June 2027 after a July 2026 pretrial hearing. Key factors shaping trader views include the severity of the federal indictment, standard U.S. detention practices for such cases, ongoing pretrial motions, and the November 2026 hearing date. Resolution would likely hinge on any bail ruling, plea agreement, or case dismissal before the trial window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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