Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at Brooklyn's Metropolitan Detention Center since his January 3, 2026, capture by American special forces during a military operation in Caracas, facing superseding indictments for narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and sanctions evasion in the Southern District of New York under Judge Alvin Hellerstein. A May 5 pretrial hearing delayed proceedings to June, with the judge rejecting defense motions to dismiss amid claims of unlawful abduction, while prosecutors advance toward trial. Venezuela's interim leadership, led by Delcy Rodríguez, demands his extradition, but no diplomatic breakthroughs or bail grants have emerged in the past 30 days. Traders assess low near-term release odds given rigorous DOJ processes for high-profile foreign detainees, potential plea deals, or prisoner swaps as key variables ahead of the June hearing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,617,973 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
December 31
15%
$2,617,973 Vol.
December 31
$222,524 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at Brooklyn's Metropolitan Detention Center since his January 3, 2026, capture by American special forces during a military operation in Caracas, facing superseding indictments for narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and sanctions evasion in the Southern District of New York under Judge Alvin Hellerstein. A May 5 pretrial hearing delayed proceedings to June, with the judge rejecting defense motions to dismiss amid claims of unlawful abduction, while prosecutors advance toward trial. Venezuela's interim leadership, led by Delcy Rodríguez, demands his extradition, but no diplomatic breakthroughs or bail grants have emerged in the past 30 days. Traders assess low near-term release odds given rigorous DOJ processes for high-profile foreign detainees, potential plea deals, or prisoner swaps as key variables ahead of the June hearing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$2,617,973End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at Brooklyn's Metropolitan Detention Center since his January 3, 2026, capture by American special forces during a military operation in Caracas, facing superseding indictments for narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and sanctions evasion in the Southern District of New York under Judge Alvin Hellerstein. A May 5 pretrial hearing delayed proceedings to June, with the judge rejecting defense motions to dismiss amid claims of unlawful abduction, while prosecutors advance toward trial. Venezuela's interim leadership, led by Delcy Rodríguez, demands his extradition, but no diplomatic breakthroughs or bail grants have emerged in the past 30 days. Traders assess low near-term release odds given rigorous DOJ processes for high-profile foreign detainees, potential plea deals, or prisoner swaps as key variables ahead of the June hearing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,617,973End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at Brooklyn's Metropolitan Detention Center since his January 3, 2026, capture by American special forces during a military operation in Caracas, facing superseding indictments for narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and sanctions evasion in the Southern District of New York under Judge Alvin Hellerstein. A May 5 pretrial hearing delayed proceedings to June, with the judge rejecting defense motions to dismiss amid claims of unlawful abduction, while prosecutors advance toward trial. Venezuela's interim leadership, led by Delcy Rodríguez, demands his extradition, but no diplomatic breakthroughs or bail grants have emerged in the past 30 days. Traders assess low near-term release odds given rigorous DOJ processes for high-profile foreign detainees, potential plea deals, or prisoner swaps as key variables ahead of the June hearing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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