Nicolás Maduro has remained in US federal custody since his January 2026 capture during a military operation in Caracas, facing drug-trafficking and weapons charges alongside his wife. Pretrial hearings, including a July 2026 session in Brooklyn, have addressed objections to the raid's legality while prosecutors advance conspiracy allegations tied to Venezuelan cocaine routes. Supporters in Venezuela have staged protests demanding his release, while diplomatic statements from allies like China have urged his return; the new Venezuelan interim government has focused on prisoner amnesties but not his case. Legal motions on jurisdiction and extradition issues continue, with any trial timeline or plea developments likely to shape near-term custody prospects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,687,782 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
December 31
7%
$2,687,782 Vol.
December 31
$292,333 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro has remained in US federal custody since his January 2026 capture during a military operation in Caracas, facing drug-trafficking and weapons charges alongside his wife. Pretrial hearings, including a July 2026 session in Brooklyn, have addressed objections to the raid's legality while prosecutors advance conspiracy allegations tied to Venezuelan cocaine routes. Supporters in Venezuela have staged protests demanding his release, while diplomatic statements from allies like China have urged his return; the new Venezuelan interim government has focused on prisoner amnesties but not his case. Legal motions on jurisdiction and extradition issues continue, with any trial timeline or plea developments likely to shape near-term custody prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$2,687,782End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro has remained in US federal custody since his January 2026 capture during a military operation in Caracas, facing drug-trafficking and weapons charges alongside his wife. Pretrial hearings, including a July 2026 session in Brooklyn, have addressed objections to the raid's legality while prosecutors advance conspiracy allegations tied to Venezuelan cocaine routes. Supporters in Venezuela have staged protests demanding his release, while diplomatic statements from allies like China have urged his return; the new Venezuelan interim government has focused on prisoner amnesties but not his case. Legal motions on jurisdiction and extradition issues continue, with any trial timeline or plea developments likely to shape near-term custody prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,687,782End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nicolás Maduro has remained in US federal custody since his January 2026 capture during a military operation in Caracas, facing drug-trafficking and weapons charges alongside his wife. Pretrial hearings, including a July 2026 session in Brooklyn, have addressed objections to the raid's legality while prosecutors advance conspiracy allegations tied to Venezuelan cocaine routes. Supporters in Venezuela have staged protests demanding his release, while diplomatic statements from allies like China have urged his return; the new Venezuelan interim government has focused on prisoner amnesties but not his case. Legal motions on jurisdiction and extradition issues continue, with any trial timeline or plea developments likely to shape near-term custody prospects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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