Zack Mullock defeated incumbent Republican Jeff Van Drew by roughly three points in New Jersey’s 2nd District on November 3, producing the narrowest House outcome in the state. Pre-election forecasts and limited polling had rated the seat likely Republican, reflecting its Cook PVI lean and Van Drew’s prior double-digit margins, yet final vote tallies showed Mullock ahead once most ballots were counted. Trader consensus pricing a 0-3 point Democratic victory at 58.9 percent aligns with the observed result and the district’s competitive history, where modest shifts in turnout or swing-voter behavior can compress margins. Van Drew’s concession on election night removed uncertainty over the winner while leaving the precise spread subject to remaining certification and any late-counted absentee or provisional ballots.