**Diplomatic sequencing and scheduled multilateral forums underpin the 70.5% implied probability for a trilateral sighting before 2027.** In May 2026, President Trump conducted a state visit to Beijing, followed days later by President Putin’s 25th trip to China, where Xi Jinping hosted both leaders separately with formal ceremonies and substantive talks on trade, security, and international issues. These back-to-back summits highlighted Beijing’s role in managing great-power relations amid ongoing conflicts. More recently, Xi’s September 2026 state visit to Washington included discussions of trilateral arms-control talks, while Kremlin statements and APEC planning have referenced potential sidelines engagement among the three leaders at the November 2026 summit in Shenzhen. Traders appear to weigh these patterns of bilateral momentum and confirmed attendance expectations against the logistical and political variables that could still prevent a joint appearance.