Trader consensus favors no action on a new Turkish constitution in 2026 at 78%, reflecting the ruling People's Alliance's shortfall of the 360-seat supermajority needed in the 600-member Grand National Assembly to trigger a referendum. President Erdoğan's May 11 call for an inclusive civilian charter, echoing prior pushes like the AK Party's December 2025 draft submission and a May 2025 legal team appointment, has not translated to parliamentary progress amid opposition refusals—CHP declined reform talks in June 2025. Economic pressures, inflation, and the 2026 budget focus have sidelined constitutional efforts, with no bill introduced or votes scheduled despite ongoing rhetoric on judicial and presidential system tweaks. Late-year developments could shift odds, but structural hurdles dominate sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors no action on a new Turkish constitution in 2026 at 78%, reflecting the ruling People's Alliance's shortfall of the 360-seat supermajority needed in the 600-member Grand National Assembly to trigger a referendum. President Erdoğan's May 11 call for an inclusive civilian charter, echoing prior pushes like the AK Party's December 2025 draft submission and a May 2025 legal team appointment, has not translated to parliamentary progress amid opposition refusals—CHP declined reform talks in June 2025. Economic pressures, inflation, and the 2026 budget focus have sidelined constitutional efforts, with no bill introduced or votes scheduled despite ongoing rhetoric on judicial and presidential system tweaks. Late-year developments could shift odds, but structural hurdles dominate sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$1,631End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors no action on a new Turkish constitution in 2026 at 78%, reflecting the ruling People's Alliance's shortfall of the 360-seat supermajority needed in the 600-member Grand National Assembly to trigger a referendum. President Erdoğan's May 11 call for an inclusive civilian charter, echoing prior pushes like the AK Party's December 2025 draft submission and a May 2025 legal team appointment, has not translated to parliamentary progress amid opposition refusals—CHP declined reform talks in June 2025. Economic pressures, inflation, and the 2026 budget focus have sidelined constitutional efforts, with no bill introduced or votes scheduled despite ongoing rhetoric on judicial and presidential system tweaks. Late-year developments could shift odds, but structural hurdles dominate sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,631End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors no action on a new Turkish constitution in 2026 at 78%, reflecting the ruling People's Alliance's shortfall of the 360-seat supermajority needed in the 600-member Grand National Assembly to trigger a referendum. President Erdoğan's May 11 call for an inclusive civilian charter, echoing prior pushes like the AK Party's December 2025 draft submission and a May 2025 legal team appointment, has not translated to parliamentary progress amid opposition refusals—CHP declined reform talks in June 2025. Economic pressures, inflation, and the 2026 budget focus have sidelined constitutional efforts, with no bill introduced or votes scheduled despite ongoing rhetoric on judicial and presidential system tweaks. Late-year developments could shift odds, but structural hurdles dominate sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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