Recent IEA forecasts highlight a shift toward global oil surplus conditions in late 2026, with supply expected to exceed demand by widening margins as OPEC+ output recovers and non-OPEC gains accelerate. This aligns with the Energy Information Administration’s unexpected 4.7 million barrel U.S. crude inventory build for the week ending November 6, alongside softer refined-product demand signals. WTI futures settled at $88.56 per barrel on November 13, down roughly 2.5 percent for the week, as reduced Middle East supply-risk premiums and expectations for firmer Federal Reserve tightening weighed on consumption outlooks. Traders are monitoring upcoming weekly stock data and any renewed geopolitical developments for shifts in near-term price ranges.