Elevated mortgage rates near 7% and elevated housing inventory continue to anchor trader sentiment for the Dallas-Fort Worth median home value on December 31, 2026. Recent MetroTex and Realtor.com data show August-September medians clustered around $389,000–$399,000 amid 4.4–5.5 months of supply, reflecting a balanced-to-buyer market where sales have moderated while prices remain largely flat year-over-year. Positive net migration and resilient local employment provide support, yet higher financing costs and seller competition limit upside. With market-implied odds tightly grouped between 25.5% and 26.0% across the $379,000–$399,000+ bands, outcomes hinge on whether fourth-quarter transaction data and any further rate movements shift the distribution before year-end resolution.