Recent floor crossings have reshaped Canada's parliamentary arithmetic under Prime Minister Mark Carney. Since November 2025, five opposition MPs—four Conservatives and one New Democrat—have switched to the Liberals, contributing to a majority government after April 2026 byelections. The most recent defection occurred on April 8 when Marilyn Gladu joined from the Conservative caucus, citing economic priorities and constituent input. Public opinion remains divided, with polls showing split views on the practice, while opposition leaders criticize it as undermining electoral mandates. With the Liberal majority now secured, further crossings hinge on individual MP alignments or internal party tensions ahead of the next general election cycle.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
30 juin 2026
May 31
16%
$1,868 Vol.
May 31
$255 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent floor crossings have reshaped Canada's parliamentary arithmetic under Prime Minister Mark Carney. Since November 2025, five opposition MPs—four Conservatives and one New Democrat—have switched to the Liberals, contributing to a majority government after April 2026 byelections. The most recent defection occurred on April 8 when Marilyn Gladu joined from the Conservative caucus, citing economic priorities and constituent input. Public opinion remains divided, with polls showing split views on the practice, while opposition leaders criticize it as undermining electoral mandates. With the Liberal majority now secured, further crossings hinge on individual MP alignments or internal party tensions ahead of the next general election cycle.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volume
$1,868Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent floor crossings have reshaped Canada's parliamentary arithmetic under Prime Minister Mark Carney. Since November 2025, five opposition MPs—four Conservatives and one New Democrat—have switched to the Liberals, contributing to a majority government after April 2026 byelections. The most recent defection occurred on April 8 when Marilyn Gladu joined from the Conservative caucus, citing economic priorities and constituent input. Public opinion remains divided, with polls showing split views on the practice, while opposition leaders criticize it as undermining electoral mandates. With the Liberal majority now secured, further crossings hinge on individual MP alignments or internal party tensions ahead of the next general election cycle.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,868Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Recent floor crossings have reshaped Canada's parliamentary arithmetic under Prime Minister Mark Carney. Since November 2025, five opposition MPs—four Conservatives and one New Democrat—have switched to the Liberals, contributing to a majority government after April 2026 byelections. The most recent defection occurred on April 8 when Marilyn Gladu joined from the Conservative caucus, citing economic priorities and constituent input. Public opinion remains divided, with polls showing split views on the practice, while opposition leaders criticize it as undermining electoral mandates. With the Liberal majority now secured, further crossings hinge on individual MP alignments or internal party tensions ahead of the next general election cycle.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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