**Persistent conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has kept Strait of Hormuz traffic at minimal levels through late August 2026.** Iran’s March closure of the chokepoint, followed by renewed hostilities after a brief June memorandum collapsed, has suppressed commercial transits to roughly 4–6 vessels per day. Independent trackers show a 7-day moving average near 4.3 by August 30, with most activity limited to Iranian-linked or US-facilitated “dark” movements amid mine risks, IRGC enforcement, and attacks on shipping. Pre-war baselines exceeded 90 daily transits. This environment produces the market’s near-certain 0–20 outcome. A rapid de-escalation restoring open navigation before month-end remains the principal scenario that could lift the average above the current range.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?
0-20 100.0%
20-40 <1%
40-60 <1%
60-80 <1%
$110,489 Vol.
$110,489 Vol.
31 août 2026
0-20
Yes
20-40
No
40-60
No
60-80
No
80+
Non
0-20 100.0%
20-40 <1%
40-60 <1%
60-80 <1%
$110,489 Vol.
$110,489 Vol.
31 août 2026
0-20
$61,187 Vol.
Yes
20-40
$14,568 Vol.
No
40-60
$15,017 Vol.
No
60-80
$11,339 Vol.
No
80+
$8,378 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Persistent conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has kept Strait of Hormuz traffic at minimal levels through late August 2026.** Iran’s March closure of the chokepoint, followed by renewed hostilities after a brief June memorandum collapsed, has suppressed commercial transits to roughly 4–6 vessels per day. Independent trackers show a 7-day moving average near 4.3 by August 30, with most activity limited to Iranian-linked or US-facilitated “dark” movements amid mine risks, IRGC enforcement, and attacks on shipping. Pre-war baselines exceeded 90 daily transits. This environment produces the market’s near-certain 0–20 outcome. A rapid de-escalation restoring open navigation before month-end remains the principal scenario that could lift the average above the current range.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Marché ouvert : Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$110,489Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Yes
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Yes
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Persistent conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has kept Strait of Hormuz traffic at minimal levels through late August 2026.** Iran’s March closure of the chokepoint, followed by renewed hostilities after a brief June memorandum collapsed, has suppressed commercial transits to roughly 4–6 vessels per day. Independent trackers show a 7-day moving average near 4.3 by August 30, with most activity limited to Iranian-linked or US-facilitated “dark” movements amid mine risks, IRGC enforcement, and attacks on shipping. Pre-war baselines exceeded 90 daily transits. This environment produces the market’s near-certain 0–20 outcome. A rapid de-escalation restoring open navigation before month-end remains the principal scenario that could lift the average above the current range.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$110,489Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Yes
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Yes
**Persistent conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has kept Strait of Hormuz traffic at minimal levels through late August 2026.** Iran’s March closure of the chokepoint, followed by renewed hostilities after a brief June memorandum collapsed, has suppressed commercial transits to roughly 4–6 vessels per day. Independent trackers show a 7-day moving average near 4.3 by August 30, with most activity limited to Iranian-linked or US-facilitated “dark” movements amid mine risks, IRGC enforcement, and attacks on shipping. Pre-war baselines exceeded 90 daily transits. This environment produces the market’s near-certain 0–20 outcome. A rapid de-escalation restoring open navigation before month-end remains the principal scenario that could lift the average above the current range.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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