**Elevated upside risks to inflation from sustained high energy prices, stemming from the Middle East conflict, are the primary driver behind the 71.5% market-implied probability of a Bank of Canada rate hike in 2026.** The BoC held its policy rate steady at 2.25% on September 2, with minutes highlighting that gasoline and diesel costs are likely to remain elevated longer than July forecasts, raising the chance of broader CPI spillover despite core measures (CPI-trim and median) staying near the 2% target. August headline inflation held at 3.0% year-over-year, while new U.S. tariffs add growth uncertainty and potential cost pressures. Traders are pricing in a higher likelihood of policy tightening than most economist surveys, which anticipate holds through year-end before possible 2027 adjustments, reflecting the BoC’s explicit readiness to respond if inflation risks materialize ahead of the October 28 Monetary Policy Report.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHausse des taux de la Banque du Canada en 2026 ?
Hausse des taux de la Banque du Canada en 2026 ?
Oui
72% chance
$23,812 Vol.
$23,812 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
72% chance
$23,812 Vol.
$23,812 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Elevated upside risks to inflation from sustained high energy prices, stemming from the Middle East conflict, are the primary driver behind the 71.5% market-implied probability of a Bank of Canada rate hike in 2026.**
The BoC held its policy rate steady at 2.25% on September 2, with minutes highlighting that gasoline and diesel costs are likely to remain elevated longer than July forecasts, raising the chance of broader CPI spillover despite core measures (CPI-trim and median) staying near the 2% target. August headline inflation held at 3.0% year-over-year, while new U.S. tariffs add growth uncertainty and potential cost pressures. Traders are pricing in a higher likelihood of policy tightening than most economist surveys, which anticipate holds through year-end before possible 2027 adjustments, reflecting the BoC’s explicit readiness to respond if inflation risks materialize ahead of the October 28 Monetary Policy Report.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Volume
$23,812Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Elevated upside risks to inflation from sustained high energy prices, stemming from the Middle East conflict, are the primary driver behind the 71.5% market-implied probability of a Bank of Canada rate hike in 2026.**
The BoC held its policy rate steady at 2.25% on September 2, with minutes highlighting that gasoline and diesel costs are likely to remain elevated longer than July forecasts, raising the chance of broader CPI spillover despite core measures (CPI-trim and median) staying near the 2% target. August headline inflation held at 3.0% year-over-year, while new U.S. tariffs add growth uncertainty and potential cost pressures. Traders are pricing in a higher likelihood of policy tightening than most economist surveys, which anticipate holds through year-end before possible 2027 adjustments, reflecting the BoC’s explicit readiness to respond if inflation risks materialize ahead of the October 28 Monetary Policy Report.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$23,812Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**Elevated upside risks to inflation from sustained high energy prices, stemming from the Middle East conflict, are the primary driver behind the 71.5% market-implied probability of a Bank of Canada rate hike in 2026.** The BoC held its policy rate steady at 2.25% on September 2, with minutes highlighting that gasoline and diesel costs are likely to remain elevated longer than July forecasts, raising the chance of broader CPI spillover despite core measures (CPI-trim and median) staying near the 2% target. August headline inflation held at 3.0% year-over-year, while new U.S. tariffs add growth uncertainty and potential cost pressures. Traders are pricing in a higher likelihood of policy tightening than most economist surveys, which anticipate holds through year-end before possible 2027 adjustments, reflecting the BoC’s explicit readiness to respond if inflation risks materialize ahead of the October 28 Monetary Policy Report.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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