The Bank of Canada’s April 29, 2026, decision to hold the overnight rate at 2.25% underpins the 95.9% market-implied probability of no change at the June 10 announcement. Weak first-quarter GDP growth, an April employment decline, and unemployment near 6.9% signal excess capacity that keeps policy on hold, while March headline CPI at 2.4% reflects a temporary energy-price spike from Middle East developments with core measures remaining near 2.2%. Traders view these conditions as aligning with the Bank’s base-case projection of inflation returning to target in 2027. The May 19 CPI release or subsequent labor data could shift sentiment if they reveal persistent inflationary pressures that prompt a reassessment of the current stance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourBank of Canada decision in June?
No change 96.0%
Increase 2.8%
25 bps decrease 1.4%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$26,453 Vol.
$26,453 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
96%
Increase
3%
No change 96.0%
Increase 2.8%
25 bps decrease 1.4%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$26,453 Vol.
$26,453 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
96%
Increase
3%
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Canada’s April 29, 2026, decision to hold the overnight rate at 2.25% underpins the 95.9% market-implied probability of no change at the June 10 announcement. Weak first-quarter GDP growth, an April employment decline, and unemployment near 6.9% signal excess capacity that keeps policy on hold, while March headline CPI at 2.4% reflects a temporary energy-price spike from Middle East developments with core measures remaining near 2.2%. Traders view these conditions as aligning with the Bank’s base-case projection of inflation returning to target in 2027. The May 19 CPI release or subsequent labor data could shift sentiment if they reveal persistent inflationary pressures that prompt a reassessment of the current stance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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