The Bank of England's June 18 Monetary Policy Committee decision carries an 84.5% market-implied probability of no change to the current 3.75% Bank Rate, reflecting traders' assessment that recent energy-driven inflation pressures from Middle East supply disruptions have not yet forced an immediate tightening. April CPI at 3.3% year-over-year and subdued wage growth have kept the focus on data dependence rather than preemptive action, while Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden's May 14 comments explicitly downplayed the need for a move in June or July. The modest 14.5% odds on a 25 basis point hike price in lingering upside risks to inflation expectations, with futures markets still embedding one potential increase later in 2026. Key upcoming releases, including May labor market data and June CPI, will shape whether the MPC maintains its cautious stance ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourDécision de la Banque d'Angleterre en juin ?
Pas de changement 85%
Augmentation de 25 points de base 15%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base <1%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$146,433 Vol.
$146,433 Vol.
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
<1%
Pas de changement
85%
Augmentation de 25 points de base
15%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
1%
Pas de changement 85%
Augmentation de 25 points de base 15%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base <1%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$146,433 Vol.
$146,433 Vol.
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
<1%
Pas de changement
85%
Augmentation de 25 points de base
15%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of England's June 18 Monetary Policy Committee decision carries an 84.5% market-implied probability of no change to the current 3.75% Bank Rate, reflecting traders' assessment that recent energy-driven inflation pressures from Middle East supply disruptions have not yet forced an immediate tightening. April CPI at 3.3% year-over-year and subdued wage growth have kept the focus on data dependence rather than preemptive action, while Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden's May 14 comments explicitly downplayed the need for a move in June or July. The modest 14.5% odds on a 25 basis point hike price in lingering upside risks to inflation expectations, with futures markets still embedding one potential increase later in 2026. Key upcoming releases, including May labor market data and June CPI, will shape whether the MPC maintains its cautious stance ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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