Recent Bank of England communications and the April 30 hold at 3.75% by an 8-1 vote have anchored the 84.5% market-implied probability of no change at the June 18 meeting. Elevated energy prices from Middle East supply disruptions lifted March CPI to 3.3%, prompting warnings of further upside risks through year-end, yet the loosening labor market—with unemployment rising and wage growth easing—has tempered second-round inflation concerns and supported the 14.5% odds on a 25 basis point increase. Traders are pricing a cautious monetary policy stance that balances these forces ahead of the next inflation and employment releases, while negligible probabilities for cuts or larger hikes reflect the uncertain balance between persistent price pressures and slowing domestic demand.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourDécision de la Banque d'Angleterre en juin ?
Pas de changement 85%
Augmentation de 25 points de base 15%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base <1%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$147,275 Vol.
$147,275 Vol.
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
<1%
Pas de changement
85%
Augmentation de 25 points de base
15%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
1%
Pas de changement 85%
Augmentation de 25 points de base 15%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base <1%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$147,275 Vol.
$147,275 Vol.
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
<1%
Pas de changement
85%
Augmentation de 25 points de base
15%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Bank of England communications and the April 30 hold at 3.75% by an 8-1 vote have anchored the 84.5% market-implied probability of no change at the June 18 meeting. Elevated energy prices from Middle East supply disruptions lifted March CPI to 3.3%, prompting warnings of further upside risks through year-end, yet the loosening labor market—with unemployment rising and wage growth easing—has tempered second-round inflation concerns and supported the 14.5% odds on a 25 basis point increase. Traders are pricing a cautious monetary policy stance that balances these forces ahead of the next inflation and employment releases, while negligible probabilities for cuts or larger hikes reflect the uncertain balance between persistent price pressures and slowing domestic demand.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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