Traders assign the PL a leading 75.5% probability to win the most seats in Brazil’s October 2026 Chamber of Deputies election because the party already holds the largest caucus with 99 members, a position strengthened by its 2022 gains under Jair Bolsonaro’s influence. Recent congressional action in late April, when lawmakers overrode President Lula’s veto to shorten sentences for coup-plot convictions, underscored the conservative majority’s cohesion and institutional leverage ahead of the vote. This dynamic, combined with Flávio Bolsonaro’s strong positioning in presidential polls as the PL standard-bearer, has reinforced expectations that right-leaning voters will consolidate support for the party’s legislative slate. Smaller parties such as UPB and FE Brasil trail because they lack comparable national reach or recent momentum in coalition negotiations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourBrazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner
Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner
PL 76%
UPB 11%
FE Brasil 6.4%
MDB 1.9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 oct. 2026
PL
76%
UPB
11%
FE Brasil
6%
MDB
2%
REPUBLICANOS
2%
PSB
1%
PSDB-CIDADANIA
<1%
PRD-SOLIDARIEDADE
<1%
PSD
<1%
MISSÃO
<1%
PDT
<1%
Avante
<1%
NOVO
<1%
PSOL-REDE
<1%
PODE
<1%
PL 76%
UPB 11%
FE Brasil 6.4%
MDB 1.9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 oct. 2026
PL
$2,917 Vol.
76%
UPB
$563 Vol.
11%
FE Brasil
$444 Vol.
6%
MDB
$239 Vol.
2%
REPUBLICANOS
$343 Vol.
2%
PSB
$266 Vol.
1%
PSDB-CIDADANIA
$185 Vol.
<1%
PRD-SOLIDARIEDADE
$195 Vol.
<1%
PSD
$175 Vol.
<1%
MISSÃO
$237 Vol.
<1%
PDT
$166 Vol.
<1%
Avante
$200 Vol.
<1%
NOVO
$165 Vol.
<1%
PSOL-REDE
$200 Vol.
<1%
PODE
$170 Vol.
<1%
The next federal Chamber of Deputies election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or electoral federation that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (Câmara dos Deputados) as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election.
In the event of a tie between multiple entities for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the entity whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party or electoral federation in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election, not by any coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (https://www.camara.leg.br/).Traders assign the PL a leading 75.5% probability to win the most seats in Brazil’s October 2026 Chamber of Deputies election because the party already holds the largest caucus with 99 members, a position strengthened by its 2022 gains under Jair Bolsonaro’s influence. Recent congressional action in late April, when lawmakers overrode President Lula’s veto to shorten sentences for coup-plot convictions, underscored the conservative majority’s cohesion and institutional leverage ahead of the vote. This dynamic, combined with Flávio Bolsonaro’s strong positioning in presidential polls as the PL standard-bearer, has reinforced expectations that right-leaning voters will consolidate support for the party’s legislative slate. Smaller parties such as UPB and FE Brasil trail because they lack comparable national reach or recent momentum in coalition negotiations.
The next federal Chamber of Deputies election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or electoral federation that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (Câmara dos Deputados) as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election.
In the event of a tie between multiple entities for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the entity whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party or electoral federation in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election, not by any coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (https://www.camara.leg.br/).
This market will resolve according to the political party or electoral federation that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (Câmara dos Deputados) as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election.
In the event of a tie between multiple entities for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the entity whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party or electoral federation in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election, not by any coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (https://www.camara.leg.br/).
Marché ouvert : Apr 27, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$6,460Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The next federal Chamber of Deputies election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or electoral federation that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (Câmara dos Deputados) as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election.
In the event of a tie between multiple entities for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the entity whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party or electoral federation in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election, not by any coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (https://www.camara.leg.br/).Traders assign the PL a leading 75.5% probability to win the most seats in Brazil’s October 2026 Chamber of Deputies election because the party already holds the largest caucus with 99 members, a position strengthened by its 2022 gains under Jair Bolsonaro’s influence. Recent congressional action in late April, when lawmakers overrode President Lula’s veto to shorten sentences for coup-plot convictions, underscored the conservative majority’s cohesion and institutional leverage ahead of the vote. This dynamic, combined with Flávio Bolsonaro’s strong positioning in presidential polls as the PL standard-bearer, has reinforced expectations that right-leaning voters will consolidate support for the party’s legislative slate. Smaller parties such as UPB and FE Brasil trail because they lack comparable national reach or recent momentum in coalition negotiations.
The next federal Chamber of Deputies election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or electoral federation that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (Câmara dos Deputados) as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election.
In the event of a tie between multiple entities for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the entity whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party or electoral federation in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election, not by any coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (https://www.camara.leg.br/).
This market will resolve according to the political party or electoral federation that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (Câmara dos Deputados) as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election.
In the event of a tie between multiple entities for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the entity whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party or electoral federation in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election, not by any coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (https://www.camara.leg.br/).
Volume
$6,460Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the PL a leading 75.5% probability to win the most seats in Brazil’s October 2026 Chamber of Deputies election because the party already holds the largest caucus with 99 members, a position strengthened by its 2022 gains under Jair Bolsonaro’s influence. Recent congressional action in late April, when lawmakers overrode President Lula’s veto to shorten sentences for coup-plot convictions, underscored the conservative majority’s cohesion and institutional leverage ahead of the vote. This dynamic, combined with Flávio Bolsonaro’s strong positioning in presidential polls as the PL standard-bearer, has reinforced expectations that right-leaning voters will consolidate support for the party’s legislative slate. Smaller parties such as UPB and FE Brasil trail because they lack comparable national reach or recent momentum in coalition negotiations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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