The California Voter Identification, Citizenship Verification, and Registered Voter List Administration Initiative qualified for the November 2026 general election ballot on April 24, after proponents led by Assemblymember Carl DeMaio collected over 962,000 valid signatures, but traders price a 61% "No" probability reflecting the state's Democratic supermajority and entrenched opposition to voter ID requirements. A March UC Berkeley IGS poll showed 56% of registered voters, including Latino majorities and some Democrats, supporting basic photo ID at polls or last-four SSN digits for mail ballots, yet voting rights groups like the ACLU and Democratic leaders frame the full measure—including mandatory citizenship audits and voter roll purges—as disenfranchising eligible voters without addressing widespread fraud. With the June 2 primary complete and opposition campaigns gearing up post-primary, historical rejection of similar GOP-backed reforms in deep-blue California underpins the current trader consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLe référendum sur l'identité des électeurs de Californie passe-t-il ?
Le référendum sur l'identité des électeurs de Californie passe-t-il ?
Oui
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Oui
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.The California Voter Identification, Citizenship Verification, and Registered Voter List Administration Initiative qualified for the November 2026 general election ballot on April 24, after proponents led by Assemblymember Carl DeMaio collected over 962,000 valid signatures, but traders price a 61% "No" probability reflecting the state's Democratic supermajority and entrenched opposition to voter ID requirements. A March UC Berkeley IGS poll showed 56% of registered voters, including Latino majorities and some Democrats, supporting basic photo ID at polls or last-four SSN digits for mail ballots, yet voting rights groups like the ACLU and Democratic leaders frame the full measure—including mandatory citizenship audits and voter roll purges—as disenfranchising eligible voters without addressing widespread fraud. With the June 2 primary complete and opposition campaigns gearing up post-primary, historical rejection of similar GOP-backed reforms in deep-blue California underpins the current trader consensus.
The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Volume
$8,091Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.The California Voter Identification, Citizenship Verification, and Registered Voter List Administration Initiative qualified for the November 2026 general election ballot on April 24, after proponents led by Assemblymember Carl DeMaio collected over 962,000 valid signatures, but traders price a 61% "No" probability reflecting the state's Democratic supermajority and entrenched opposition to voter ID requirements. A March UC Berkeley IGS poll showed 56% of registered voters, including Latino majorities and some Democrats, supporting basic photo ID at polls or last-four SSN digits for mail ballots, yet voting rights groups like the ACLU and Democratic leaders frame the full measure—including mandatory citizenship audits and voter roll purges—as disenfranchising eligible voters without addressing widespread fraud. With the June 2 primary complete and opposition campaigns gearing up post-primary, historical rejection of similar GOP-backed reforms in deep-blue California underpins the current trader consensus.
The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
Volume
$8,091Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The California Voter Identification, Citizenship Verification, and Registered Voter List Administration Initiative qualified for the November 2026 general election ballot on April 24, after proponents led by Assemblymember Carl DeMaio collected over 962,000 valid signatures, but traders price a 61% "No" probability reflecting the state's Democratic supermajority and entrenched opposition to voter ID requirements. A March UC Berkeley IGS poll showed 56% of registered voters, including Latino majorities and some Democrats, supporting basic photo ID at polls or last-four SSN digits for mail ballots, yet voting rights groups like the ACLU and Democratic leaders frame the full measure—including mandatory citizenship audits and voter roll purges—as disenfranchising eligible voters without addressing widespread fraud. With the June 2 primary complete and opposition campaigns gearing up post-primary, historical rejection of similar GOP-backed reforms in deep-blue California underpins the current trader consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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