Persistent inflation at 5.68% year-over-year in April 2026, well above the 3% target, and Banco de la República staff projections for a rise above 6% by year-end are sustaining the near-even split in market-implied odds for the June 30 policy decision. The unanimous April hold at the current 11.25% rate defied earlier expectations for further tightening, introducing caution as policymakers balance persistent core readings above 5.5% and robust domestic demand against moderating growth and fiscal stimulus. Recent comments from board members suggesting a possible slowdown in the pace of hikes, combined with the forthcoming May inflation release, remain the key swing factors that could tip trader consensus between a 25-to-50 basis point increase and another pause.