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icon for Chine x Inde affrontement militaire par... ?
Politique·Inde

Chine x Inde affrontement militaire par... ?

icon for Chine x Inde affrontement militaire par... ?
Politique·Inde

Chine x Inde affrontement militaire par... ?

$237,291 Vol.

31 déc. 2026
Polymarket

$237,291 Vol.

Polymarket

31 décembre 2026

$126,412 Vol.

13%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and India between January 29, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Indian military forces. Hand-to-hand combat with the use of melee weapons between military personnel, will qualify. For example the 2020 Galwan Valley clash and the 2022 Yangtse clash would both count. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however the Indian Coast Guard (ICG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and India between January 29, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Indian military forces. Hand-to-hand combat with the use of melee weapons between military personnel, will qualify. For example the 2020 Galwan Valley clash and the 2022 Yangtse clash would both count. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however the Indian Coast Guard (ICG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and India between January 29, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Indian military forces. Hand-to-hand combat with the use of melee weapons between military personnel, will qualify. For example the 2020 Galwan Valley clash and the 2022 Yangtse clash would both count. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however the Indian Coast Guard (ICG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing diplomatic engagement between India and China continues to shape trader assessments of border risks, with the two sides holding their 23rd Corps Commander-level meeting in October 2025 to reaffirm use of established mechanisms for resolving ground issues along the Line of Actual Control. Recent infrastructure developments, including Chinese road construction in disputed areas and Indian criticism of buffer zone restrictions, have sustained low-level friction without triggering new escalations. Historical precedent from the 2020 Galwan clash and subsequent disengagement agreements underscores both nations' preference for managed patrols over open conflict, while scheduled high-level talks and regional military deployments remain key variables that could influence near-term probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and India between January 29, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Indian military forces. Hand-to-hand combat with the use of melee weapons between military personnel, will qualify. For example the 2020 Galwan Valley clash and the 2022 Yangtse clash would both count.

Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however the Indian Coast Guard (ICG) is not.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$237,291
Date de fin
31 déc. 2025
Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 5:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and India between January 29, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Indian military forces. Hand-to-hand combat with the use of melee weapons between military personnel, will qualify. For example the 2020 Galwan Valley clash and the 2022 Yangtse clash would both count. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however the Indian Coast Guard (ICG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and India between January 29, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Indian military forces. Hand-to-hand combat with the use of melee weapons between military personnel, will qualify. For example the 2020 Galwan Valley clash and the 2022 Yangtse clash would both count. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however the Indian Coast Guard (ICG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and India between January 29, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Indian military forces. Hand-to-hand combat with the use of melee weapons between military personnel, will qualify. For example the 2020 Galwan Valley clash and the 2022 Yangtse clash would both count. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however the Indian Coast Guard (ICG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and India between January 29, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Indian military forces. Hand-to-hand combat with the use of melee weapons between military personnel, will qualify. For example the 2020 Galwan Valley clash and the 2022 Yangtse clash would both count. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however the Indian Coast Guard (ICG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing diplomatic engagement between India and China continues to shape trader assessments of border risks, with the two sides holding their 23rd Corps Commander-level meeting in October 2025 to reaffirm use of established mechanisms for resolving ground issues along the Line of Actual Control. Recent infrastructure developments, including Chinese road construction in disputed areas and Indian criticism of buffer zone restrictions, have sustained low-level friction without triggering new escalations. Historical precedent from the 2020 Galwan clash and subsequent disengagement agreements underscores both nations' preference for managed patrols over open conflict, while scheduled high-level talks and regional military deployments remain key variables that could influence near-term probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and India between January 29, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Indian military forces. Hand-to-hand combat with the use of melee weapons between military personnel, will qualify. For example the 2020 Galwan Valley clash and the 2022 Yangtse clash would both count.

Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however the Indian Coast Guard (ICG) is not.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$237,291
Date de fin
31 déc. 2025
Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 5:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and India between January 29, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Indian military forces. Hand-to-hand combat with the use of melee weapons between military personnel, will qualify. For example the 2020 Galwan Valley clash and the 2022 Yangtse clash would both count. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however the Indian Coast Guard (ICG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Questions fréquentes

« Chine x Inde affrontement militaire par... ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 3 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 31 décembre 2026 » à 13%, suivi de « 30 juin » à 0%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 13¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 13% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Chine x Inde affrontement militaire par... ? » a généré $237.3K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jan 30, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Chine x Inde affrontement militaire par... ? », parcourez les 3 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Chine x Inde affrontement militaire par... ? » est « 31 décembre 2026 » à 13%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 13% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 30 juin » à 0%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Chine x Inde affrontement militaire par... ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.