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Élections·Élections Mondiales

Vainqueur de l'élection partielle Dublin-Central

icon for Vainqueur de l'élection partielle Dublin-Central
Élections·Élections Mondiales

Vainqueur de l'élection partielle Dublin-Central

Daniel Ennis 68%

Janice Boylan 19.2%

Gerry Hutch 7.7%

Ray McAdam 1.7%

Polymarket

$1,088,860 Vol.

Daniel Ennis 68%

Janice Boylan 19.2%

Gerry Hutch 7.7%

Ray McAdam 1.7%

Polymarket

$1,088,860 Vol.

Daniel Ennis

$33,329 Vol.

68%

Janice Boylan

$17,884 Vol.

19%

Gerry Hutch

$508,746 Vol.

8%

Ray McAdam

$34,455 Vol.

2%

Malachy Steenson

$21,001 Vol.

1%

Gillian Sherratt

$182,754 Vol.

1%

Ian Noel Smyth

$13,515 Vol.

<1%

Janet Horner

$15,361 Vol.

<1%

Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin

$53,121 Vol.

<1%

Séamas McGrattan

$9,475 Vol.

<1%

Mary Fitzpatrick

$45,271 Vol.

<1%

John Stephens

$153,949 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Daniel Ennis of the Social Democrats holds a strong lead in the Dublin Central by-election market because Ireland’s single transferable vote system rewards candidates who attract broad second and subsequent preferences from eliminated rivals. A recent Irish Times/TG4 Ipsos B&A poll placed Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan narrowly ahead on first preferences at 21 percent, with Ennis on 18 percent, but showed him commanding the highest second-preference support and positioned to receive transfers from Green, Labour and People Before Profit voters as well as some centre-right preferences seeking to block a Sinn Féin victory. Independent Gerry Hutch’s third-place showing is expected to be eliminated early, further boosting the left-leaning transfer pool. With polling day set for 22 May, traders are pricing in these established transfer dynamics over raw first-preference tallies.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$1,088,860
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Daniel Ennis of the Social Democrats holds a strong lead in the Dublin Central by-election market because Ireland’s single transferable vote system rewards candidates who attract broad second and subsequent preferences from eliminated rivals. A recent Irish Times/TG4 Ipsos B&A poll placed Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan narrowly ahead on first preferences at 21 percent, with Ennis on 18 percent, but showed him commanding the highest second-preference support and positioned to receive transfers from Green, Labour and People Before Profit voters as well as some centre-right preferences seeking to block a Sinn Féin victory. Independent Gerry Hutch’s third-place showing is expected to be eliminated early, further boosting the left-leaning transfer pool. With polling day set for 22 May, traders are pricing in these established transfer dynamics over raw first-preference tallies.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$1,088,860
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

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Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de l'élection partielle Dublin-Central » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 12 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Daniel Ennis » à 68%, suivi de « Janice Boylan » à 19%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 68¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 68% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Vainqueur de l'élection partielle Dublin-Central » a généré $1.1 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Feb 20, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de l'élection partielle Dublin-Central », parcourez les 12 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de l'élection partielle Dublin-Central » est « Daniel Ennis » à 68%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 68% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Janice Boylan » à 19%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de l'élection partielle Dublin-Central » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.