Recent April durable goods orders surged 7.9% month-over-month, far exceeding forecasts and led by a 21.5% jump in transportation equipment, particularly nondefense aircraft. This volatility fuels expectations of mean reversion for May, with traders assigning the highest implied probability to declines exceeding 4%. Core orders excluding transportation rose a modest 1.1%, while nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft fell 1.1%, signaling softer underlying business investment. The upcoming June 25 release will test whether broader manufacturing momentum persists amid steady labor market conditions and contained inflation readings. Market-implied odds highlight the closely contested nature of the outcome, with swing factors including aircraft order timing and any revisions to prior data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour<-4% 33.6%
-4 % – -2 % 25%
-2 % – 0 % 10.1%
2 %–4 % 10%
$44,870 Vol.
$44,870 Vol.
25 juin 2026
<-4%
34%
-4 % – -2 %
25%
-2 % – 0 %
10%
0 %–2 %
9%
2 %–4 %
10%
4 %–6 %
5%
6 %-8 %
1%
8 %+
5%
<-4% 33.6%
-4 % – -2 % 25%
-2 % – 0 % 10.1%
2 %–4 % 10%
$44,870 Vol.
$44,870 Vol.
25 juin 2026
<-4%
$3,314 Vol.
34%
-4 % – -2 %
$4,595 Vol.
25%
-2 % – 0 %
$1,723 Vol.
10%
0 %–2 %
$7,520 Vol.
9%
2 %–4 %
$14,160 Vol.
10%
4 %–6 %
$8,250 Vol.
5%
6 %-8 %
$3,048 Vol.
1%
8 %+
$2,259 Vol.
5%
This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent April durable goods orders surged 7.9% month-over-month, far exceeding forecasts and led by a 21.5% jump in transportation equipment, particularly nondefense aircraft. This volatility fuels expectations of mean reversion for May, with traders assigning the highest implied probability to declines exceeding 4%. Core orders excluding transportation rose a modest 1.1%, while nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft fell 1.1%, signaling softer underlying business investment. The upcoming June 25 release will test whether broader manufacturing momentum persists amid steady labor market conditions and contained inflation readings. Market-implied odds highlight the closely contested nature of the outcome, with swing factors including aircraft order timing and any revisions to prior data.
This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : Jun 1, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$44,870Date de fin
25 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 1, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent April durable goods orders surged 7.9% month-over-month, far exceeding forecasts and led by a 21.5% jump in transportation equipment, particularly nondefense aircraft. This volatility fuels expectations of mean reversion for May, with traders assigning the highest implied probability to declines exceeding 4%. Core orders excluding transportation rose a modest 1.1%, while nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft fell 1.1%, signaling softer underlying business investment. The upcoming June 25 release will test whether broader manufacturing momentum persists amid steady labor market conditions and contained inflation readings. Market-implied odds highlight the closely contested nature of the outcome, with swing factors including aircraft order timing and any revisions to prior data.
This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$44,870Date de fin
25 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 1, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April durable goods orders surged 7.9% month-over-month, far exceeding forecasts and led by a 21.5% jump in transportation equipment, particularly nondefense aircraft. This volatility fuels expectations of mean reversion for May, with traders assigning the highest implied probability to declines exceeding 4%. Core orders excluding transportation rose a modest 1.1%, while nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft fell 1.1%, signaling softer underlying business investment. The upcoming June 25 release will test whether broader manufacturing momentum persists amid steady labor market conditions and contained inflation readings. Market-implied odds highlight the closely contested nature of the outcome, with swing factors including aircraft order timing and any revisions to prior data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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