Recent U.S. economic data have anchored trader expectations for the December 2026 FOMC meeting around a hold, with the federal funds rate steady at its current 3.50–3.75% target range. July CPI printed at 3.4% year-over-year—still well above the 2% goal—while core measures eased modestly and unemployment held near 4.1%, supporting a cautious policy stance amid resilient growth and lingering Middle East energy-price pressures. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, pricing a 67.5% chance of no change versus a 27.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike, consistent with recent Fed dot-plot medians and analyst revisions that pulled forward rate-hike forecasts to year-end. Cut probabilities remain low, reflecting limited evidence of labor-market deterioration or rapid disinflation. Upcoming September and October employment and inflation releases, plus any further geopolitical developments, represent the principal near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities ahead of the December decision.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAucun changement 68%
25 bps increase 28%
25 bps decrease 5.2%
50+ bps decrease 1.4%
$141,003 Vol.
$141,003 Vol.
9 déc. 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
5%
Aucun changement
68%
25 bps increase
28%
50+ bps increase
1%
Aucun changement 68%
25 bps increase 28%
25 bps decrease 5.2%
50+ bps decrease 1.4%
$141,003 Vol.
$141,003 Vol.
9 déc. 2026
50+ bps decrease
$25,648 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$34,719 Vol.
5%
Aucun changement
$34,596 Vol.
68%
25 bps increase
$25,505 Vol.
28%
50+ bps increase
$20,535 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. economic data have anchored trader expectations for the December 2026 FOMC meeting around a hold, with the federal funds rate steady at its current 3.50–3.75% target range. July CPI printed at 3.4% year-over-year—still well above the 2% goal—while core measures eased modestly and unemployment held near 4.1%, supporting a cautious policy stance amid resilient growth and lingering Middle East energy-price pressures. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, pricing a 67.5% chance of no change versus a 27.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike, consistent with recent Fed dot-plot medians and analyst revisions that pulled forward rate-hike forecasts to year-end. Cut probabilities remain low, reflecting limited evidence of labor-market deterioration or rapid disinflation. Upcoming September and October employment and inflation releases, plus any further geopolitical developments, represent the principal near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities ahead of the December decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$141,003Date de fin
9 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. economic data have anchored trader expectations for the December 2026 FOMC meeting around a hold, with the federal funds rate steady at its current 3.50–3.75% target range. July CPI printed at 3.4% year-over-year—still well above the 2% goal—while core measures eased modestly and unemployment held near 4.1%, supporting a cautious policy stance amid resilient growth and lingering Middle East energy-price pressures. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, pricing a 67.5% chance of no change versus a 27.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike, consistent with recent Fed dot-plot medians and analyst revisions that pulled forward rate-hike forecasts to year-end. Cut probabilities remain low, reflecting limited evidence of labor-market deterioration or rapid disinflation. Upcoming September and October employment and inflation releases, plus any further geopolitical developments, represent the principal near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities ahead of the December decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$141,003Date de fin
9 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. economic data have anchored trader expectations for the December 2026 FOMC meeting around a hold, with the federal funds rate steady at its current 3.50–3.75% target range. July CPI printed at 3.4% year-over-year—still well above the 2% goal—while core measures eased modestly and unemployment held near 4.1%, supporting a cautious policy stance amid resilient growth and lingering Middle East energy-price pressures. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, pricing a 67.5% chance of no change versus a 27.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike, consistent with recent Fed dot-plot medians and analyst revisions that pulled forward rate-hike forecasts to year-end. Cut probabilities remain low, reflecting limited evidence of labor-market deterioration or rapid disinflation. Upcoming September and October employment and inflation releases, plus any further geopolitical developments, represent the principal near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities ahead of the December decision.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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