Elevated inflation readings, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures near 2.5%, combined with lingering energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions, anchor trader expectations for the December FOMC meeting. The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% in July amid a divided 9-3 vote, with dissenters favoring a hike, while recent payroll data showed contraction and unemployment at 4.1%. This backdrop supports the 58.5% implied probability of no change as the baseline, tempered by 29.5% odds of a 25 basis point increase reflecting hawkish signals and revised analyst forecasts pointing to potential tightening by year-end. Market-implied odds aggregate real capital commitments and will respond to upcoming September data releases and any shifts in Fed communications ahead of the December Summary of Economic Projections.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAucun changement 59%
25 bps increase 30%
25 bps decrease 11.1%
50+ bps decrease 2.4%
$98,058 Vol.
$98,058 Vol.
9 déc. 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
11%
Aucun changement
59%
25 bps increase
30%
50+ bps increase
1%
Aucun changement 59%
25 bps increase 30%
25 bps decrease 11.1%
50+ bps decrease 2.4%
$98,058 Vol.
$98,058 Vol.
9 déc. 2026
50+ bps decrease
$15,533 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$27,376 Vol.
11%
Aucun changement
$21,147 Vol.
59%
25 bps increase
$19,487 Vol.
30%
50+ bps increase
$14,515 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures near 2.5%, combined with lingering energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions, anchor trader expectations for the December FOMC meeting. The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% in July amid a divided 9-3 vote, with dissenters favoring a hike, while recent payroll data showed contraction and unemployment at 4.1%. This backdrop supports the 58.5% implied probability of no change as the baseline, tempered by 29.5% odds of a 25 basis point increase reflecting hawkish signals and revised analyst forecasts pointing to potential tightening by year-end. Market-implied odds aggregate real capital commitments and will respond to upcoming September data releases and any shifts in Fed communications ahead of the December Summary of Economic Projections.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$98,058Date de fin
9 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures near 2.5%, combined with lingering energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions, anchor trader expectations for the December FOMC meeting. The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% in July amid a divided 9-3 vote, with dissenters favoring a hike, while recent payroll data showed contraction and unemployment at 4.1%. This backdrop supports the 58.5% implied probability of no change as the baseline, tempered by 29.5% odds of a 25 basis point increase reflecting hawkish signals and revised analyst forecasts pointing to potential tightening by year-end. Market-implied odds aggregate real capital commitments and will respond to upcoming September data releases and any shifts in Fed communications ahead of the December Summary of Economic Projections.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$98,058Date de fin
9 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures near 2.5%, combined with lingering energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions, anchor trader expectations for the December FOMC meeting. The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% in July amid a divided 9-3 vote, with dissenters favoring a hike, while recent payroll data showed contraction and unemployment at 4.1%. This backdrop supports the 58.5% implied probability of no change as the baseline, tempered by 29.5% odds of a 25 basis point increase reflecting hawkish signals and revised analyst forecasts pointing to potential tightening by year-end. Market-implied odds aggregate real capital commitments and will respond to upcoming September data releases and any shifts in Fed communications ahead of the December Summary of Economic Projections.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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