Recent moderation in July CPI to 3.4% year-over-year and softening July payrolls have reinforced trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at its 3.50%-3.75% target range through the September FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation above the 2% goal, alongside a divided committee that saw three dissents favoring a hike in July, supports the 75.5% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September decisions. Core measures remain elevated near 2.5%, tempering any near-term easing bias despite labor-market cooling. The absence of an August meeting focuses attention on incoming August CPI and labor data as key inputs ahead of the September 15-16 gathering.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause 76%
Other 23%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.8%
$743,524 Vol.
$743,524 Vol.
16 sept. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Other
23%
Pause–Pause–Pause 76%
Other 23%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.8%
$743,524 Vol.
$743,524 Vol.
16 sept. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$290,888 Vol.
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$76,486 Vol.
2%
Other
$320,274 Vol.
23%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent moderation in July CPI to 3.4% year-over-year and softening July payrolls have reinforced trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at its 3.50%-3.75% target range through the September FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation above the 2% goal, alongside a divided committee that saw three dissents favoring a hike in July, supports the 75.5% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September decisions. Core measures remain elevated near 2.5%, tempering any near-term easing bias despite labor-market cooling. The absence of an August meeting focuses attention on incoming August CPI and labor data as key inputs ahead of the September 15-16 gathering.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Marché ouvert : Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$743,524Date de fin
16 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent moderation in July CPI to 3.4% year-over-year and softening July payrolls have reinforced trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at its 3.50%-3.75% target range through the September FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation above the 2% goal, alongside a divided committee that saw three dissents favoring a hike in July, supports the 75.5% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September decisions. Core measures remain elevated near 2.5%, tempering any near-term easing bias despite labor-market cooling. The absence of an August meeting focuses attention on incoming August CPI and labor data as key inputs ahead of the September 15-16 gathering.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$743,524Date de fin
16 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent moderation in July CPI to 3.4% year-over-year and softening July payrolls have reinforced trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at its 3.50%-3.75% target range through the September FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation above the 2% goal, alongside a divided committee that saw three dissents favoring a hike in July, supports the 75.5% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September decisions. Core measures remain elevated near 2.5%, tempering any near-term easing bias despite labor-market cooling. The absence of an August meeting focuses attention on incoming August CPI and labor data as key inputs ahead of the September 15-16 gathering.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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