Persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices, amid U.S.-Iran tensions, and a resilient labor market with the unemployment rate at 4.1% in July have shifted market-implied odds toward potential rate hikes later in 2026. The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% in July, with futures pricing a modest path higher toward 3.8% by year-end and the June dot plot showing a median projection around 3.75%–4.00%. Trader consensus reflected in the 55.5% "No" probability balances these upside risks against the Fed's recent pause and dispersion in official outlooks, with the September FOMC meeting serving as the next key catalyst for clarifying the policy trajectory.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$7,506,589 Vol.
$7,506,589 Vol.
Oui
$7,506,589 Vol.
$7,506,589 Vol.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices, amid U.S.-Iran tensions, and a resilient labor market with the unemployment rate at 4.1% in July have shifted market-implied odds toward potential rate hikes later in 2026. The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% in July, with futures pricing a modest path higher toward 3.8% by year-end and the June dot plot showing a median projection around 3.75%–4.00%. Trader consensus reflected in the 55.5% "No" probability balances these upside risks against the Fed's recent pause and dispersion in official outlooks, with the September FOMC meeting serving as the next key catalyst for clarifying the policy trajectory.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour



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