Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 34–36°C for Chongqing’s August 10 maximum because short-range numerical weather prediction models show the city remaining under a strong subtropical high with abundant low-level moisture and light winds. These conditions favor afternoon temperatures near or slightly above the long-term August climatological mean of 33–34°C. Small differences in forecast cloud cover, timing of any convective showers, and boundary-layer mixing explain the tight spread among the leading outcomes; clearer skies would push readings toward 36°C while scattered rain or thicker cloud decks could cap them at 34°C. Official guidance from Chinese meteorological agencies continues to indicate above-average heat across the Sichuan Basin through mid-August, with limited model divergence expected until the next update cycle.