Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models project a Tokyo minimum near 24°C on August 10, reflecting typical mid-August conditions of high humidity, cloud cover, and scattered showers that reduce overnight radiative cooling. This places the outcome squarely in line with historical August lows averaging 24–26°C at central stations. The market’s heavy weighting toward 24°C (55.5% implied probability) and 25°C (40%) captures trader assessment of stable steering patterns and limited model spread two days ahead of resolution. Minor upward or downward shifts remain possible with the next ensemble update, particularly if shower timing or wind changes alter boundary-layer mixing.