**Trader consensus strongly favors a maximum temperature of 28°C in Manila on August 5, 2026, with a 95.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects the dominant influence of the southwest monsoon (habagat) and associated low-pressure areas, which have produced persistent cloudy skies, scattered rain showers, and thunderstorms across Metro Manila in recent days. Official PAGASA forecasts for August 5 indicate a high near 29–31°C alongside a 30–90% chance of rain, yet the enhanced cloud cover and precipitation suppress daytime heating by limiting solar radiation and promoting evaporative cooling—conditions typical during peak habagat activity in the wet season. Historical climatology supports this outlook: August averages hover around 31°C, but monsoon-enhanced periods frequently cap highs in the upper 20s°C. Recent observations, including a prior-day maximum of 29.5°C amid similar weather, reinforce trader expectations that the high will settle at or below 28°C. Realistic challenges to this outcome include a temporary weakening of the monsoon or clearing skies that allow stronger insolation, potentially lifting the maximum to 29–30°C. Updated PAGASA model runs or afternoon observations could shift probabilities if rainfall decreases earlier than anticipated.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTempérature la plus élevée à Manille le 5 août ?
Température la plus élevée à Manille le 5 août ?
28°C 96%
29°C 2%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$20,111 Vol.
$20,111 Vol.
5 août 2026
22°C ou moins
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
96%
29°C
2%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C ou plus
<1%
28°C 96%
29°C 2%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$20,111 Vol.
$20,111 Vol.
5 août 2026
22°C ou moins
$938 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$267 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$434 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$440 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,625 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$2,596 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$2,808 Vol.
96%
29°C
$3,952 Vol.
2%
30°C
$2,590 Vol.
1%
31°C
$2,631 Vol.
<1%
32°C ou plus
$1,829 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a maximum temperature of 28°C in Manila on August 5, 2026, with a 95.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects the dominant influence of the southwest monsoon (habagat) and associated low-pressure areas, which have produced persistent cloudy skies, scattered rain showers, and thunderstorms across Metro Manila in recent days. Official PAGASA forecasts for August 5 indicate a high near 29–31°C alongside a 30–90% chance of rain, yet the enhanced cloud cover and precipitation suppress daytime heating by limiting solar radiation and promoting evaporative cooling—conditions typical during peak habagat activity in the wet season.
Historical climatology supports this outlook: August averages hover around 31°C, but monsoon-enhanced periods frequently cap highs in the upper 20s°C. Recent observations, including a prior-day maximum of 29.5°C amid similar weather, reinforce trader expectations that the high will settle at or below 28°C.
Realistic challenges to this outcome include a temporary weakening of the monsoon or clearing skies that allow stronger insolation, potentially lifting the maximum to 29–30°C. Updated PAGASA model runs or afternoon observations could shift probabilities if rainfall decreases earlier than anticipated.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 3, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Volume
$20,111Date de fin
5 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 3, 2026, 12:09 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a maximum temperature of 28°C in Manila on August 5, 2026, with a 95.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects the dominant influence of the southwest monsoon (habagat) and associated low-pressure areas, which have produced persistent cloudy skies, scattered rain showers, and thunderstorms across Metro Manila in recent days. Official PAGASA forecasts for August 5 indicate a high near 29–31°C alongside a 30–90% chance of rain, yet the enhanced cloud cover and precipitation suppress daytime heating by limiting solar radiation and promoting evaporative cooling—conditions typical during peak habagat activity in the wet season.
Historical climatology supports this outlook: August averages hover around 31°C, but monsoon-enhanced periods frequently cap highs in the upper 20s°C. Recent observations, including a prior-day maximum of 29.5°C amid similar weather, reinforce trader expectations that the high will settle at or below 28°C.
Realistic challenges to this outcome include a temporary weakening of the monsoon or clearing skies that allow stronger insolation, potentially lifting the maximum to 29–30°C. Updated PAGASA model runs or afternoon observations could shift probabilities if rainfall decreases earlier than anticipated.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$20,111Date de fin
5 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 3, 2026, 12:09 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus strongly favors a maximum temperature of 28°C in Manila on August 5, 2026, with a 95.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects the dominant influence of the southwest monsoon (habagat) and associated low-pressure areas, which have produced persistent cloudy skies, scattered rain showers, and thunderstorms across Metro Manila in recent days. Official PAGASA forecasts for August 5 indicate a high near 29–31°C alongside a 30–90% chance of rain, yet the enhanced cloud cover and precipitation suppress daytime heating by limiting solar radiation and promoting evaporative cooling—conditions typical during peak habagat activity in the wet season. Historical climatology supports this outlook: August averages hover around 31°C, but monsoon-enhanced periods frequently cap highs in the upper 20s°C. Recent observations, including a prior-day maximum of 29.5°C amid similar weather, reinforce trader expectations that the high will settle at or below 28°C. Realistic challenges to this outcome include a temporary weakening of the monsoon or clearing skies that allow stronger insolation, potentially lifting the maximum to 29–30°C. Updated PAGASA model runs or afternoon observations could shift probabilities if rainfall decreases earlier than anticipated.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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