Recent numerical weather prediction models, including outputs from ECMWF and GFS, point to a maximum temperature of 19–21°C in Warsaw on September 14 under moderate southerly flow, high pressure near 1019–1021 hPa, and variable cloud cover that limits peak insolation. Light winds and dew points around 13–15°C support modest daytime warming above the September climatological average of roughly 16–18°C, while any increase in low-level moisture or thicker cloud decks could cap readings near 19°C. Trader consensus, with 20°C at 42.5% and 21°C at 29.5% implied probability, aligns with this narrow forecast envelope and the limited upside risk from 23°C or higher. Updated model runs and observational trends over the next 24 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Varsovie le 14 septembre ?
La température la plus élevée à Varsovie le 14 septembre ?
20°C 42%
19°C 27%
21°C 20%
22°C 5%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 sept. 2026
13°C ou moins
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
2%
18°C
4%
19°C
27%
20°C
42%
21°C
20%
22°C
5%
23°C ou plus
1%
20°C 42%
19°C 27%
21°C 20%
22°C 5%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 sept. 2026
13°C ou moins
$237 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$142 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$338 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$97 Vol.
1%
17°C
$153 Vol.
2%
18°C
$156 Vol.
4%
19°C
$1,617 Vol.
27%
20°C
$1,602 Vol.
42%
21°C
$1,770 Vol.
20%
22°C
$191 Vol.
5%
23°C ou plus
$172 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including outputs from ECMWF and GFS, point to a maximum temperature of 19–21°C in Warsaw on September 14 under moderate southerly flow, high pressure near 1019–1021 hPa, and variable cloud cover that limits peak insolation. Light winds and dew points around 13–15°C support modest daytime warming above the September climatological average of roughly 16–18°C, while any increase in low-level moisture or thicker cloud decks could cap readings near 19°C. Trader consensus, with 20°C at 42.5% and 21°C at 29.5% implied probability, aligns with this narrow forecast envelope and the limited upside risk from 23°C or higher. Updated model runs and observational trends over the next 24 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$6,469Date de fin
14 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including outputs from ECMWF and GFS, point to a maximum temperature of 19–21°C in Warsaw on September 14 under moderate southerly flow, high pressure near 1019–1021 hPa, and variable cloud cover that limits peak insolation. Light winds and dew points around 13–15°C support modest daytime warming above the September climatological average of roughly 16–18°C, while any increase in low-level moisture or thicker cloud decks could cap readings near 19°C. Trader consensus, with 20°C at 42.5% and 21°C at 29.5% implied probability, aligns with this narrow forecast envelope and the limited upside risk from 23°C or higher. Updated model runs and observational trends over the next 24 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,469Date de fin
14 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models, including outputs from ECMWF and GFS, point to a maximum temperature of 19–21°C in Warsaw on September 14 under moderate southerly flow, high pressure near 1019–1021 hPa, and variable cloud cover that limits peak insolation. Light winds and dew points around 13–15°C support modest daytime warming above the September climatological average of roughly 16–18°C, while any increase in low-level moisture or thicker cloud decks could cap readings near 19°C. Trader consensus, with 20°C at 42.5% and 21°C at 29.5% implied probability, aligns with this narrow forecast envelope and the limited upside risk from 23°C or higher. Updated model runs and observational trends over the next 24 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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