Global seismic activity during May 11–17 produced a count aligning precisely with the USGS long-term weekly average of five to eight magnitude 5.5 or greater events, driving the market’s 94.6% implied probability for exactly six. Steady strain release along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones and scattered mid-ocean ridge activity occurred without major aftershock sequences, magnitude-7+ events, or unusual clustering that would elevate the total. Official USGS catalogs aggregate international network data with ongoing review for accuracy, supporting trader consensus on this baseline outcome. Realistic challenges include final catalog revisions that reclassify borderline events or detect additional ones near the 5.5 threshold before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
6 94.6%
7 3.1%
≤3 <1%
4 <1%
$143,920 Vol.
$143,920 Vol.
17 mai 2026
≤3
<1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
6
95%
7
3%
8
<1%
9
<1%
>9
<1%
6 94.6%
7 3.1%
≤3 <1%
4 <1%
$143,920 Vol.
$143,920 Vol.
17 mai 2026
≤3
$58,894 Vol.
<1%
4
$20,043 Vol.
<1%
5
$20,156 Vol.
<1%
6
$5,707 Vol.
95%
7
$6,269 Vol.
3%
8
$8,158 Vol.
<1%
9
$6,860 Vol.
<1%
>9
$18,194 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic activity during May 11–17 produced a count aligning precisely with the USGS long-term weekly average of five to eight magnitude 5.5 or greater events, driving the market’s 94.6% implied probability for exactly six. Steady strain release along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones and scattered mid-ocean ridge activity occurred without major aftershock sequences, magnitude-7+ events, or unusual clustering that would elevate the total. Official USGS catalogs aggregate international network data with ongoing review for accuracy, supporting trader consensus on this baseline outcome. Realistic challenges include final catalog revisions that reclassify borderline events or detect additional ones near the 5.5 threshold before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Marché ouvert : May 9, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$143,920Date de fin
17 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 9, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic activity during May 11–17 produced a count aligning precisely with the USGS long-term weekly average of five to eight magnitude 5.5 or greater events, driving the market’s 94.6% implied probability for exactly six. Steady strain release along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones and scattered mid-ocean ridge activity occurred without major aftershock sequences, magnitude-7+ events, or unusual clustering that would elevate the total. Official USGS catalogs aggregate international network data with ongoing review for accuracy, supporting trader consensus on this baseline outcome. Realistic challenges include final catalog revisions that reclassify borderline events or detect additional ones near the 5.5 threshold before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$143,920Date de fin
17 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 9, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismic activity during May 11–17 produced a count aligning precisely with the USGS long-term weekly average of five to eight magnitude 5.5 or greater events, driving the market’s 94.6% implied probability for exactly six. Steady strain release along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones and scattered mid-ocean ridge activity occurred without major aftershock sequences, magnitude-7+ events, or unusual clustering that would elevate the total. Official USGS catalogs aggregate international network data with ongoing review for accuracy, supporting trader consensus on this baseline outcome. Realistic challenges include final catalog revisions that reclassify borderline events or detect additional ones near the 5.5 threshold before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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