Global seismic monitoring by the USGS indicates that magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes occur at an average rate of roughly one to two per week worldwide, driven by ongoing tectonic plate interactions along major fault zones. This established baseline, combined with the random timing of stress release and the absence of any notable foreshock sequences or aftershock clusters in the current data, supports the closely matched market-implied probabilities for zero, one, or two events during the June 8–14 window. Model consensus on short-term variability remains high due to the Poisson-like distribution of such events, while upcoming real-time catalog updates will clarify whether activity aligns with or deviates from historical norms.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de tremblements de terre de 6,5 ou plus entre le 8 et le 14 juin ?
Combien de tremblements de terre de 6,5 ou plus entre le 8 et le 14 juin ?
1 51%
0 48%
2 26%
3 5.9%
$14,641 Vol.
$14,641 Vol.
15 juin 2026
0
29%
1
39%
2
31%
3
6%
4
1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
1 51%
0 48%
2 26%
3 5.9%
$14,641 Vol.
$14,641 Vol.
15 juin 2026
0
$5,353 Vol.
29%
1
$1,385 Vol.
39%
2
$851 Vol.
31%
3
$963 Vol.
6%
4
$1,564 Vol.
1%
5
$1,422 Vol.
<1%
>5
$3,119 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic monitoring by the USGS indicates that magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes occur at an average rate of roughly one to two per week worldwide, driven by ongoing tectonic plate interactions along major fault zones. This established baseline, combined with the random timing of stress release and the absence of any notable foreshock sequences or aftershock clusters in the current data, supports the closely matched market-implied probabilities for zero, one, or two events during the June 8–14 window. Model consensus on short-term variability remains high due to the Poisson-like distribution of such events, while upcoming real-time catalog updates will clarify whether activity aligns with or deviates from historical norms.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Marché ouvert : Jun 5, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$14,641Date de fin
15 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 5, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic monitoring by the USGS indicates that magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes occur at an average rate of roughly one to two per week worldwide, driven by ongoing tectonic plate interactions along major fault zones. This established baseline, combined with the random timing of stress release and the absence of any notable foreshock sequences or aftershock clusters in the current data, supports the closely matched market-implied probabilities for zero, one, or two events during the June 8–14 window. Model consensus on short-term variability remains high due to the Poisson-like distribution of such events, while upcoming real-time catalog updates will clarify whether activity aligns with or deviates from historical norms.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$14,641Date de fin
15 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 5, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismic monitoring by the USGS indicates that magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes occur at an average rate of roughly one to two per week worldwide, driven by ongoing tectonic plate interactions along major fault zones. This established baseline, combined with the random timing of stress release and the absence of any notable foreshock sequences or aftershock clusters in the current data, supports the closely matched market-implied probabilities for zero, one, or two events during the June 8–14 window. Model consensus on short-term variability remains high due to the Poisson-like distribution of such events, while upcoming real-time catalog updates will clarify whether activity aligns with or deviates from historical norms.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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