**Democratic Senate incumbents seeking renomination in 2026 have largely faced minimal primary opposition, supporting the market's strong consensus around zero losses.** With 13 Democratic seats in the cycle, several are open due to announced retirements (Gary Peters in Michigan, Tina Smith in Minnesota, Dick Durbin in Illinois), shifting focus to competitive nomination contests for those vacancies rather than incumbent challenges. Sitting senators such as Jon Ossoff (Georgia), Cory Booker (New Jersey), and Ben Ray Luján (New Mexico) advanced with little resistance, consistent with historical patterns where Senate incumbents rarely lose renomination absent major scandals or party fractures. Recent primaries, including Michigan's August 4 contest for the open seat (won by progressive Abdul El-Sayed over Rep. Haley Stevens) and Illinois's March primary (won by Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton), highlight intraparty dynamics but did not involve sitting senators. Limited challenges, such as minor opposition to John Hickenlooper in Colorado, have not produced viable threats. Trader pricing reflects the absence of widespread progressive or outsider surges targeting Democratic Senate incumbents, unlike some House races, with no confirmed losses or late-breaking developments altering that baseline through mid-August 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de sénateurs démocrates titulaires ne remporteront pas leur primaire ?
Combien de sénateurs démocrates titulaires ne remporteront pas leur primaire ?
0 79%
1 7.3%
>4 3.9%
2 3.6%
$14,032 Vol.
$14,032 Vol.
0
79%
1
13%
2
4%
3
<1%
4
1%
>4
4%
0 79%
1 7.3%
>4 3.9%
2 3.6%
$14,032 Vol.
$14,032 Vol.
0
$8,581 Vol.
79%
1
$1,887 Vol.
13%
2
$1,518 Vol.
4%
3
$720 Vol.
<1%
4
$724 Vol.
1%
>4
$602 Vol.
4%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Democratic Senate incumbents seeking renomination in 2026 have largely faced minimal primary opposition, supporting the market's strong consensus around zero losses.** With 13 Democratic seats in the cycle, several are open due to announced retirements (Gary Peters in Michigan, Tina Smith in Minnesota, Dick Durbin in Illinois), shifting focus to competitive nomination contests for those vacancies rather than incumbent challenges. Sitting senators such as Jon Ossoff (Georgia), Cory Booker (New Jersey), and Ben Ray Luján (New Mexico) advanced with little resistance, consistent with historical patterns where Senate incumbents rarely lose renomination absent major scandals or party fractures.
Recent primaries, including Michigan's August 4 contest for the open seat (won by progressive Abdul El-Sayed over Rep. Haley Stevens) and Illinois's March primary (won by Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton), highlight intraparty dynamics but did not involve sitting senators. Limited challenges, such as minor opposition to John Hickenlooper in Colorado, have not produced viable threats. Trader pricing reflects the absence of widespread progressive or outsider surges targeting Democratic Senate incumbents, unlike some House races, with no confirmed losses or late-breaking developments altering that baseline through mid-August 2026.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Marché ouvert : Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
Volume
$14,032Marché ouvert
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Democratic Senate incumbents seeking renomination in 2026 have largely faced minimal primary opposition, supporting the market's strong consensus around zero losses.** With 13 Democratic seats in the cycle, several are open due to announced retirements (Gary Peters in Michigan, Tina Smith in Minnesota, Dick Durbin in Illinois), shifting focus to competitive nomination contests for those vacancies rather than incumbent challenges. Sitting senators such as Jon Ossoff (Georgia), Cory Booker (New Jersey), and Ben Ray Luján (New Mexico) advanced with little resistance, consistent with historical patterns where Senate incumbents rarely lose renomination absent major scandals or party fractures.
Recent primaries, including Michigan's August 4 contest for the open seat (won by progressive Abdul El-Sayed over Rep. Haley Stevens) and Illinois's March primary (won by Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton), highlight intraparty dynamics but did not involve sitting senators. Limited challenges, such as minor opposition to John Hickenlooper in Colorado, have not produced viable threats. Trader pricing reflects the absence of widespread progressive or outsider surges targeting Democratic Senate incumbents, unlike some House races, with no confirmed losses or late-breaking developments altering that baseline through mid-August 2026.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$14,032Marché ouvert
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Democratic Senate incumbents seeking renomination in 2026 have largely faced minimal primary opposition, supporting the market's strong consensus around zero losses.** With 13 Democratic seats in the cycle, several are open due to announced retirements (Gary Peters in Michigan, Tina Smith in Minnesota, Dick Durbin in Illinois), shifting focus to competitive nomination contests for those vacancies rather than incumbent challenges. Sitting senators such as Jon Ossoff (Georgia), Cory Booker (New Jersey), and Ben Ray Luján (New Mexico) advanced with little resistance, consistent with historical patterns where Senate incumbents rarely lose renomination absent major scandals or party fractures. Recent primaries, including Michigan's August 4 contest for the open seat (won by progressive Abdul El-Sayed over Rep. Haley Stevens) and Illinois's March primary (won by Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton), highlight intraparty dynamics but did not involve sitting senators. Limited challenges, such as minor opposition to John Hickenlooper in Colorado, have not produced viable threats. Trader pricing reflects the absence of widespread progressive or outsider surges targeting Democratic Senate incumbents, unlike some House races, with no confirmed losses or late-breaking developments altering that baseline through mid-August 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Les titulaires républicains au Sénat ne remporteront-ils pas exactement trois élections de nomination lors du cycle 2026 ?
80%
Oui
Les titulaires républicains à la Chambre ne remporteront-ils pas entre quatre et six élections de nomination lors du cycle 2026 ?
93%
Oui
Le Parti républicain détiendra-t-il moins de 22 postes de gouverneur après les élections de mi-mandat de 2026 ?
31%
Oui
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