Short-term forecast uncertainty dominates trader positioning for Amsterdam's minimum temperature on September 15, with leading outcomes clustered between 15–17°C reflecting divergent model guidance. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System runs show subtle differences in overnight cloud cover and boundary-layer wind speeds, which control radiative cooling rates under a weak high-pressure ridge. Clearer skies and lighter winds favor lower readings near 14–15°C, while increased moisture and modest southerly flow support 16–17°C. Historical September minima average around 11–13°C, but current ensemble spreads remain wide due to the short lead time and typical autumn variability in the North Atlantic. Updated model cycles and local observations from KNMI stations will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Amsterdam le 15 septembre ?
La température la plus basse à Amsterdam le 15 septembre ?
18°C 39%
12°C 39%
15°C 37%
11°C ou moins 37%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
15 sept. 2026
11°C ou moins
37%
12°C
39%
13°C
17%
14°C
20%
15°C
37%
16°C
36%
17°C
36%
18°C
39%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C ou plus
<1%
18°C 39%
12°C 39%
15°C 37%
11°C ou moins 37%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
15 sept. 2026
11°C ou moins
$10 Vol.
37%
12°C
$10 Vol.
39%
13°C
$87 Vol.
17%
14°C
$0 Vol.
20%
15°C
$0 Vol.
37%
16°C
$6 Vol.
36%
17°C
$14 Vol.
36%
18°C
$5 Vol.
39%
19°C
$166 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$192 Vol.
<1%
21°C ou plus
$335 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty dominates trader positioning for Amsterdam's minimum temperature on September 15, with leading outcomes clustered between 15–17°C reflecting divergent model guidance. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System runs show subtle differences in overnight cloud cover and boundary-layer wind speeds, which control radiative cooling rates under a weak high-pressure ridge. Clearer skies and lighter winds favor lower readings near 14–15°C, while increased moisture and modest southerly flow support 16–17°C. Historical September minima average around 11–13°C, but current ensemble spreads remain wide due to the short lead time and typical autumn variability in the North Atlantic. Updated model cycles and local observations from KNMI stations will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Volume
$826Date de fin
15 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty dominates trader positioning for Amsterdam's minimum temperature on September 15, with leading outcomes clustered between 15–17°C reflecting divergent model guidance. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System runs show subtle differences in overnight cloud cover and boundary-layer wind speeds, which control radiative cooling rates under a weak high-pressure ridge. Clearer skies and lighter winds favor lower readings near 14–15°C, while increased moisture and modest southerly flow support 16–17°C. Historical September minima average around 11–13°C, but current ensemble spreads remain wide due to the short lead time and typical autumn variability in the North Atlantic. Updated model cycles and local observations from KNMI stations will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$826Date de fin
15 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Short-term forecast uncertainty dominates trader positioning for Amsterdam's minimum temperature on September 15, with leading outcomes clustered between 15–17°C reflecting divergent model guidance. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System runs show subtle differences in overnight cloud cover and boundary-layer wind speeds, which control radiative cooling rates under a weak high-pressure ridge. Clearer skies and lighter winds favor lower readings near 14–15°C, while increased moisture and modest southerly flow support 16–17°C. Historical September minima average around 11–13°C, but current ensemble spreads remain wide due to the short lead time and typical autumn variability in the North Atlantic. Updated model cycles and local observations from KNMI stations will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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