Forecast model ensembles show notable spread for Ankara's overnight minimum on September 14, with some runs indicating stronger northwesterly advection and clear skies promoting radiational cooling toward 10–12 °C while others retain more cloud cover or weaker winds limiting the drop to 15–16 °C. Recent observations confirm a sharp cooling trend after September 13 highs near 32 °C, consistent with an approaching trough and shifting pressure gradient that enhances nocturnal heat loss at the elevated Anatolian plateau site. This uncertainty between cooler boundary-layer mixing and potential warmer residual advection underpins the closely matched market-implied probabilities for extremes (≤12 °C or ≥22 °C) versus mid-range outcomes, as traders weigh official guidance from sources like the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF/GFS consensus against historical September low variability around 14 °C. Updated model runs and evening observations ahead of resolution will likely narrow the range.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Ankara le 14 septembre ?
La température la plus basse à Ankara le 14 septembre ?
12°C ou moins 74%
22°C ou plus 74%
16°C 39%
17°C 37%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 sept. 2026
12°C ou moins
74%
13°C
23%
14°C
29%
15°C
22%
16°C
39%
17°C
37%
18°C
37%
19°C
37%
20°C
7%
21°C
13%
22°C ou plus
74%
12°C ou moins 74%
22°C ou plus 74%
16°C 39%
17°C 37%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 sept. 2026
12°C ou moins
$0 Vol.
74%
13°C
$0 Vol.
23%
14°C
$0 Vol.
29%
15°C
$0 Vol.
22%
16°C
$20 Vol.
39%
17°C
$0 Vol.
37%
18°C
$0 Vol.
37%
19°C
$0 Vol.
37%
20°C
$0 Vol.
7%
21°C
$0 Vol.
13%
22°C ou plus
$0 Vol.
74%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast model ensembles show notable spread for Ankara's overnight minimum on September 14, with some runs indicating stronger northwesterly advection and clear skies promoting radiational cooling toward 10–12 °C while others retain more cloud cover or weaker winds limiting the drop to 15–16 °C. Recent observations confirm a sharp cooling trend after September 13 highs near 32 °C, consistent with an approaching trough and shifting pressure gradient that enhances nocturnal heat loss at the elevated Anatolian plateau site. This uncertainty between cooler boundary-layer mixing and potential warmer residual advection underpins the closely matched market-implied probabilities for extremes (≤12 °C or ≥22 °C) versus mid-range outcomes, as traders weigh official guidance from sources like the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF/GFS consensus against historical September low variability around 14 °C. Updated model runs and evening observations ahead of resolution will likely narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$20Date de fin
14 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast model ensembles show notable spread for Ankara's overnight minimum on September 14, with some runs indicating stronger northwesterly advection and clear skies promoting radiational cooling toward 10–12 °C while others retain more cloud cover or weaker winds limiting the drop to 15–16 °C. Recent observations confirm a sharp cooling trend after September 13 highs near 32 °C, consistent with an approaching trough and shifting pressure gradient that enhances nocturnal heat loss at the elevated Anatolian plateau site. This uncertainty between cooler boundary-layer mixing and potential warmer residual advection underpins the closely matched market-implied probabilities for extremes (≤12 °C or ≥22 °C) versus mid-range outcomes, as traders weigh official guidance from sources like the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF/GFS consensus against historical September low variability around 14 °C. Updated model runs and evening observations ahead of resolution will likely narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$20Date de fin
14 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Forecast model ensembles show notable spread for Ankara's overnight minimum on September 14, with some runs indicating stronger northwesterly advection and clear skies promoting radiational cooling toward 10–12 °C while others retain more cloud cover or weaker winds limiting the drop to 15–16 °C. Recent observations confirm a sharp cooling trend after September 13 highs near 32 °C, consistent with an approaching trough and shifting pressure gradient that enhances nocturnal heat loss at the elevated Anatolian plateau site. This uncertainty between cooler boundary-layer mixing and potential warmer residual advection underpins the closely matched market-implied probabilities for extremes (≤12 °C or ≥22 °C) versus mid-range outcomes, as traders weigh official guidance from sources like the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF/GFS consensus against historical September low variability around 14 °C. Updated model runs and evening observations ahead of resolution will likely narrow the range.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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