The Hong Kong Observatory's forecast for a 26°C overnight minimum on August 31 anchors trader positioning, reflecting consensus from multiple models on persistent cloud cover, showers, and thunderstorms generated by a broad low-pressure trough over the South China Sea. High humidity levels of 75-95% and light easterly winds limit radiative cooling, keeping lows in the narrow 25-27°C band that collectively holds over 80% implied probability. Recent model runs show minimal day-to-day shifts in this range, though timing of heavier rain overnight could produce brief dips toward 25°C or hold closer to 27°C depending on cloud breaks. This setup aligns with typical late-August climatology under developing El Niño conditions, where unsettled weather suppresses both extremes.