The market-implied odds overwhelmingly favor 25°C as Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on May 15 because official Hong Kong Observatory data recorded a minimum of exactly that value overnight under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Mid-May climatology typically produces nighttime lows of 24–26°C, and no cold-air intrusions or enhanced cloud cover altered the expected diurnal range. Traders therefore treat the observatory’s verified reading as the decisive resolution criterion, leaving only negligible room for alternative outcomes. Minor station-to-station differences remain possible but are unlikely to shift the official minimum outside the 25°C threshold once final quality-controlled values are released.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
25°C 99.9%
18°C ou moins <1%
23°C <1%
26°C <1%
$63,971 Vol.
$63,971 Vol.
15 mai 2026
18°C ou moins
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99.9%
18°C ou moins <1%
23°C <1%
26°C <1%
$63,971 Vol.
$63,971 Vol.
15 mai 2026
18°C ou moins
$2,541 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$2,325 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$2,408 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,288 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$3,899 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$5,193 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$12,287 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$8,673 Vol.
100%
26°C
$12,015 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$8,229 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$4,112 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market-implied odds overwhelmingly favor 25°C as Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on May 15 because official Hong Kong Observatory data recorded a minimum of exactly that value overnight under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Mid-May climatology typically produces nighttime lows of 24–26°C, and no cold-air intrusions or enhanced cloud cover altered the expected diurnal range. Traders therefore treat the observatory’s verified reading as the decisive resolution criterion, leaving only negligible room for alternative outcomes. Minor station-to-station differences remain possible but are unlikely to shift the official minimum outside the 25°C threshold once final quality-controlled values are released.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volume
$63,971Date de fin
15 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market-implied odds overwhelmingly favor 25°C as Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on May 15 because official Hong Kong Observatory data recorded a minimum of exactly that value overnight under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Mid-May climatology typically produces nighttime lows of 24–26°C, and no cold-air intrusions or enhanced cloud cover altered the expected diurnal range. Traders therefore treat the observatory’s verified reading as the decisive resolution criterion, leaving only negligible room for alternative outcomes. Minor station-to-station differences remain possible but are unlikely to shift the official minimum outside the 25°C threshold once final quality-controlled values are released.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$63,971Date de fin
15 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market-implied odds overwhelmingly favor 25°C as Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on May 15 because official Hong Kong Observatory data recorded a minimum of exactly that value overnight under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Mid-May climatology typically produces nighttime lows of 24–26°C, and no cold-air intrusions or enhanced cloud cover altered the expected diurnal range. Traders therefore treat the observatory’s verified reading as the decisive resolution criterion, leaving only negligible room for alternative outcomes. Minor station-to-station differences remain possible but are unlikely to shift the official minimum outside the 25°C threshold once final quality-controlled values are released.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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