Trader consensus on Polymarket, with market-implied odds peaking at 28.5% for 16°C, reflects the UK Met Office's latest forecast of a 17°C maximum in London on May 17 amid persistent cloud cover and light morning showers easing later, capping diurnal heating. Recent days saw highs of 14-16°C under cool northerly airflow and unstable conditions, but a slight shift to westerly winds introduces marginal warming potential. Key differentiators include cloud thickness—thicker overcast favors 15°C outcomes, while breaks could boost to 18-20°C—and shower coverage, per ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads. Historical mid-May averages hover around 16-17°C at Heathrow, the likely resolution site. Watch 06Z/12Z model updates Saturday for shifts ahead of the event.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Londres le 17 mai ?
La température la plus élevée à Londres le 17 mai ?
16°C 33%
15°C 31%
17°C 24%
14°C 17%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
17 mai 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
5%
14°C
17%
15°C
31%
16°C
33%
17°C
24%
18°C
3%
19°C
3%
20°C or higher
1%
16°C 33%
15°C 31%
17°C 24%
14°C 17%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
17 mai 2026
10°C or below
$338 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$301 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$328 Vol.
1%
13°C
$180 Vol.
5%
14°C
$105 Vol.
17%
15°C
$132 Vol.
31%
16°C
$77 Vol.
33%
17°C
$67 Vol.
24%
18°C
$83 Vol.
3%
19°C
$95 Vol.
3%
20°C or higher
$118 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket, with market-implied odds peaking at 28.5% for 16°C, reflects the UK Met Office's latest forecast of a 17°C maximum in London on May 17 amid persistent cloud cover and light morning showers easing later, capping diurnal heating. Recent days saw highs of 14-16°C under cool northerly airflow and unstable conditions, but a slight shift to westerly winds introduces marginal warming potential. Key differentiators include cloud thickness—thicker overcast favors 15°C outcomes, while breaks could boost to 18-20°C—and shower coverage, per ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads. Historical mid-May averages hover around 16-17°C at Heathrow, the likely resolution site. Watch 06Z/12Z model updates Saturday for shifts ahead of the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$1,822Date de fin
17 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket, with market-implied odds peaking at 28.5% for 16°C, reflects the UK Met Office's latest forecast of a 17°C maximum in London on May 17 amid persistent cloud cover and light morning showers easing later, capping diurnal heating. Recent days saw highs of 14-16°C under cool northerly airflow and unstable conditions, but a slight shift to westerly winds introduces marginal warming potential. Key differentiators include cloud thickness—thicker overcast favors 15°C outcomes, while breaks could boost to 18-20°C—and shower coverage, per ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads. Historical mid-May averages hover around 16-17°C at Heathrow, the likely resolution site. Watch 06Z/12Z model updates Saturday for shifts ahead of the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,822Date de fin
17 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCTrader consensus on Polymarket, with market-implied odds peaking at 28.5% for 16°C, reflects the UK Met Office's latest forecast of a 17°C maximum in London on May 17 amid persistent cloud cover and light morning showers easing later, capping diurnal heating. Recent days saw highs of 14-16°C under cool northerly airflow and unstable conditions, but a slight shift to westerly winds introduces marginal warming potential. Key differentiators include cloud thickness—thicker overcast favors 15°C outcomes, while breaks could boost to 18-20°C—and shower coverage, per ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads. Historical mid-May averages hover around 16-17°C at Heathrow, the likely resolution site. Watch 06Z/12Z model updates Saturday for shifts ahead of the event.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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