Current forecasts from regional models place Hong Kong’s maximum temperature on May 18 near 28 °C, reflecting the seasonal shift toward pre-monsoon southerly flow that typically lifts daily highs from the mid-20s into the upper 20s by mid-month. Climatological records show May averages around 28 °C, with variability driven by cloud cover, wind direction, and the timing of any frontal passages. The near-even split between the 27 °C and 28 °C contracts captures this narrow uncertainty band, while the modest 13 % probability on 26 °C accounts for possible stronger onshore flow or increased afternoon convection. The Hong Kong Observatory’s May–July outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures provides additional context, though day-to-day model updates through the weekend will refine the precise peak.