**Forecast models for Moscow on August 31, 2026, show the overnight minimum likely falling in the 13–16 °C range, with trader-implied odds clustered tightly because of small but decisive differences in expected cloud cover, wind, and radiative cooling.** Current guidance from sources such as the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and global ensembles points to a mild southerly flow and variable cloudiness, limiting extreme cooling while allowing temperatures to dip to around 14–15 °C under clearer intervals. Light rain or increased low-level moisture could raise the floor toward 16 °C by suppressing nocturnal temperature drops, whereas brief clear spells or lighter winds could permit brief radiative cooling to 13 °C or slightly below. Historical late-August climatology (typical overnight lows near 14 °C) provides context, but the narrow spread in current runs—driven by uncertainties in exact timing of cloud breaks and boundary-layer moisture—explains why probabilities for 13 °C, 11–12 °C, and 16 °C remain so closely matched just 48 hours from resolution.