**Recent official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models converge on a nighttime low of 27°C for Shanghai on August 25, aligning with the market’s 60% implied probability for that outcome.** Persistent subtropical high-pressure influence, light southeast-to-east winds under 10 km/h, and increasing cloud cover from residual moisture have kept overnight radiative cooling limited, sustaining minimum temperatures in the 26–27°C range over the past several days. Recent observations show lows of 26–27°C amid partly cloudy to overcast conditions and scattered light rain, with dew points near 25–26°C contributing to elevated humidity that suppresses further temperature drops. Urban heat island effects in the Shanghai metropolitan area further buffer against cooler readings, while the absence of any approaching cold front or significant typhoon-related wind shift through the 25th maintains this thermal regime. Ensemble model guidance indicates only modest day-to-day variability, with the 26°C and 28°C outcomes (24% and 17.5% implied odds) representing the primary uncertainty bands around this consensus. No major data shifts have occurred in the last 48 hours to alter this positioning.