Despite President Donald Trump's recent public criticisms of NATO allies for not supporting U.S. strikes on Iran and demands for higher burden-sharing, trader consensus prices a 94.5% implied probability against the alliance dissolving before 2027, reflecting institutional resilience and no concrete dissolution steps. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte dismissed U.S. withdrawal speculation last week, emphasizing unity amid Russia's Ukraine invasion, while planning advances for the July 2026 Ankara summit to address transatlantic tensions like Greenland and Strait of Hormuz disputes. Article 13's one-year exit notice for any member, coupled with sustained European defense spending hikes and multilateral commitments, erects high barriers to breakup, with traders viewing rhetoric as unlikely to trigger full alliance termination before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourL'OTAN se dissout-elle avant 2027 ?
L'OTAN se dissout-elle avant 2027 ?
Oui
$76,923 Vol.
$76,923 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$76,923 Vol.
$76,923 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Despite President Donald Trump's recent public criticisms of NATO allies for not supporting U.S. strikes on Iran and demands for higher burden-sharing, trader consensus prices a 94.5% implied probability against the alliance dissolving before 2027, reflecting institutional resilience and no concrete dissolution steps. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte dismissed U.S. withdrawal speculation last week, emphasizing unity amid Russia's Ukraine invasion, while planning advances for the July 2026 Ankara summit to address transatlantic tensions like Greenland and Strait of Hormuz disputes. Article 13's one-year exit notice for any member, coupled with sustained European defense spending hikes and multilateral commitments, erects high barriers to breakup, with traders viewing rhetoric as unlikely to trigger full alliance termination before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volume
$76,923Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Despite President Donald Trump's recent public criticisms of NATO allies for not supporting U.S. strikes on Iran and demands for higher burden-sharing, trader consensus prices a 94.5% implied probability against the alliance dissolving before 2027, reflecting institutional resilience and no concrete dissolution steps. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte dismissed U.S. withdrawal speculation last week, emphasizing unity amid Russia's Ukraine invasion, while planning advances for the July 2026 Ankara summit to address transatlantic tensions like Greenland and Strait of Hormuz disputes. Article 13's one-year exit notice for any member, coupled with sustained European defense spending hikes and multilateral commitments, erects high barriers to breakup, with traders viewing rhetoric as unlikely to trigger full alliance termination before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$76,923Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite President Donald Trump's recent public criticisms of NATO allies for not supporting U.S. strikes on Iran and demands for higher burden-sharing, trader consensus prices a 94.5% implied probability against the alliance dissolving before 2027, reflecting institutional resilience and no concrete dissolution steps. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte dismissed U.S. withdrawal speculation last week, emphasizing unity amid Russia's Ukraine invasion, while planning advances for the July 2026 Ankara summit to address transatlantic tensions like Greenland and Strait of Hormuz disputes. Article 13's one-year exit notice for any member, coupled with sustained European defense spending hikes and multilateral commitments, erects high barriers to breakup, with traders viewing rhetoric as unlikely to trigger full alliance termination before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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