NATO's institutional framework, including Article 5 commitments and legal hurdles to U.S. withdrawal such as Senate supermajority requirements, underpins trader expectations that the alliance will remain intact through 2026. The July 2026 Ankara summit reinforced this outlook, with heads of state endorsing a 5% GDP defense spending target, new industrial cooperation initiatives, and collective deterrence priorities amid ongoing support for Ukraine. No member state has launched formal exit procedures, and recent tensions over burden-sharing or regional conflicts have eased without triggering dissolution pathways. While a sudden escalation in major-power confrontations or abrupt policy reversal by a key ally could theoretically shift dynamics before year-end, such developments lack current momentum.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourL'OTAN se dissout-elle avant 2027 ?
L'OTAN se dissout-elle avant 2027 ?
Oui
3% chance
$122,369 Vol.
$122,369 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
3% chance
$122,369 Vol.
$122,369 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.NATO's institutional framework, including Article 5 commitments and legal hurdles to U.S. withdrawal such as Senate supermajority requirements, underpins trader expectations that the alliance will remain intact through 2026. The July 2026 Ankara summit reinforced this outlook, with heads of state endorsing a 5% GDP defense spending target, new industrial cooperation initiatives, and collective deterrence priorities amid ongoing support for Ukraine. No member state has launched formal exit procedures, and recent tensions over burden-sharing or regional conflicts have eased without triggering dissolution pathways. While a sudden escalation in major-power confrontations or abrupt policy reversal by a key ally could theoretically shift dynamics before year-end, such developments lack current momentum.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volume
$122,369Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.NATO's institutional framework, including Article 5 commitments and legal hurdles to U.S. withdrawal such as Senate supermajority requirements, underpins trader expectations that the alliance will remain intact through 2026. The July 2026 Ankara summit reinforced this outlook, with heads of state endorsing a 5% GDP defense spending target, new industrial cooperation initiatives, and collective deterrence priorities amid ongoing support for Ukraine. No member state has launched formal exit procedures, and recent tensions over burden-sharing or regional conflicts have eased without triggering dissolution pathways. While a sudden escalation in major-power confrontations or abrupt policy reversal by a key ally could theoretically shift dynamics before year-end, such developments lack current momentum.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$122,369Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NATO's institutional framework, including Article 5 commitments and legal hurdles to U.S. withdrawal such as Senate supermajority requirements, underpins trader expectations that the alliance will remain intact through 2026. The July 2026 Ankara summit reinforced this outlook, with heads of state endorsing a 5% GDP defense spending target, new industrial cooperation initiatives, and collective deterrence priorities amid ongoing support for Ukraine. No member state has launched formal exit procedures, and recent tensions over burden-sharing or regional conflicts have eased without triggering dissolution pathways. While a sudden escalation in major-power confrontations or abrupt policy reversal by a key ally could theoretically shift dynamics before year-end, such developments lack current momentum.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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