Google’s accelerated Flash iteration cadence drives the market, with Gemini 3.8 Flash entering internal Jetski testing just 14 days after the August 13 release of 3.7 Flash and only weeks after 3.6. Trader consensus, reflected in the 37% implied probability for September 11, centers on this pattern of rapid algorithmic refinements and developer feedback loops targeting coding and agentic performance. No public confirmation or pricing details exist yet, though Google’s stated goal of near-monthly updates and competitive pressure on low-cost inference keep early-to-mid September dates dominant while leaving room for last-minute shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOn or prior to September 1 39%
7 septembre 34%
September 2 26%
September 3 17%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 sept. 2026
On or prior to September 1
24%
September 2
26%
September 3
25%
September 4
12%
September 5
9%
September 6
5%
7 septembre
34%
8 septembre
4%
9 septembre
7%
10 septembre
8%
11 septembre
5%
12 septembre
5%
13 septembre
3%
14 septembre
7%
15 septembre
27%
Aucune sortie d'ici le 15 septembre
11%
On or prior to September 1 39%
7 septembre 34%
September 2 26%
September 3 17%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 sept. 2026
On or prior to September 1
$145 Vol.
24%
September 2
$39 Vol.
26%
September 3
$87 Vol.
25%
September 4
$51 Vol.
12%
September 5
$457 Vol.
9%
September 6
$457 Vol.
5%
7 septembre
$39 Vol.
34%
8 septembre
$51 Vol.
4%
9 septembre
$51 Vol.
7%
10 septembre
$39 Vol.
8%
11 septembre
$50 Vol.
5%
12 septembre
$47 Vol.
5%
13 septembre
$117 Vol.
3%
14 septembre
$39 Vol.
7%
15 septembre
$47 Vol.
27%
Aucune sortie d'ici le 15 septembre
$98 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.7 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Gemini 3.7 Flash, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s accelerated Flash iteration cadence drives the market, with Gemini 3.8 Flash entering internal Jetski testing just 14 days after the August 13 release of 3.7 Flash and only weeks after 3.6. Trader consensus, reflected in the 37% implied probability for September 11, centers on this pattern of rapid algorithmic refinements and developer feedback loops targeting coding and agentic performance. No public confirmation or pricing details exist yet, though Google’s stated goal of near-monthly updates and competitive pressure on low-cost inference keep early-to-mid September dates dominant while leaving room for last-minute shifts.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.7 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Gemini 3.7 Flash, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.7 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Gemini 3.7 Flash, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Aug 31, 2026, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,814Date de fin
15 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 4:09 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.7 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Gemini 3.7 Flash, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s accelerated Flash iteration cadence drives the market, with Gemini 3.8 Flash entering internal Jetski testing just 14 days after the August 13 release of 3.7 Flash and only weeks after 3.6. Trader consensus, reflected in the 37% implied probability for September 11, centers on this pattern of rapid algorithmic refinements and developer feedback loops targeting coding and agentic performance. No public confirmation or pricing details exist yet, though Google’s stated goal of near-monthly updates and competitive pressure on low-cost inference keep early-to-mid September dates dominant while leaving room for last-minute shifts.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.7 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Gemini 3.7 Flash, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.7 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Gemini 3.7 Flash, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,814Date de fin
15 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 4:09 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Google’s accelerated Flash iteration cadence drives the market, with Gemini 3.8 Flash entering internal Jetski testing just 14 days after the August 13 release of 3.7 Flash and only weeks after 3.6. Trader consensus, reflected in the 37% implied probability for September 11, centers on this pattern of rapid algorithmic refinements and developer feedback loops targeting coding and agentic performance. No public confirmation or pricing details exist yet, though Google’s stated goal of near-monthly updates and competitive pressure on low-cost inference keep early-to-mid September dates dominant while leaving room for last-minute shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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