Vladimir Putin’s current presidential term, secured through 2020 constitutional amendments that reset term limits and allow him to remain in office until 2036, forms the core driver of trader expectations that he will stay in power through December 31, 2026. As of May 2026, the 73-year-old leader continues to direct national priorities, including six strategic tasks outlined in December 2025 and Russia’s CSTO chairmanship agenda, while maintaining tight control over security services and elite networks. Public appearances, such as the May 2026 Victory Day events, underscore his ongoing authority despite occasional health speculation. No formal succession process or significant internal challenge has emerged, leaving the implied probability of removal heavily weighted against any abrupt departure before the end of the year.