The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s April 2026 decision to hold the official cash rate at 2.25 percent, citing the need to look through near-term oil-price pressures from Middle East developments while focusing on medium-term inflation, continues to anchor trader expectations for a similar outcome at the May 27 Monetary Policy Statement. Recent Survey of Expectations data show one-year-ahead CPI inflation rising to 3.41 percent and OCR forecasts lifting to 3.01 percent, yet weak domestic demand, elevated spare capacity, and contained core measures have kept market-implied odds of no change at 86 percent. Modest 14.5 percent pricing for an increase reflects the RBNZ’s repeated emphasis on monitoring wage growth and inflation expectations before any tightening, while a cut remains remote at 0.1 percent given the inflation trajectory. The upcoming full forecast update and labor-market data will serve as key catalysts for any shift in the policy path.