Persistent legislative gridlock and limited consensus on comprehensive federal AI safety requirements have kept major bills from advancing to enactment. Multiple measures addressing frontier model risks, audits, and oversight advanced through House committees in mid-2026 and entered Senate negotiations in September, yet partisan differences, state preemption disputes, and industry input have stalled floor action ahead of midterms. Executive branch priorities favoring voluntary frameworks over new mandates have further reduced momentum. With fewer than four months remaining in 2026 and no completed markup or vote on a broad safety package, traders assign high probability to no enactment before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLes États-Unis adoptent-ils un projet de loi sur la sécurité de l'IA avant 2027 ?
Les États-Unis adoptent-ils un projet de loi sur la sécurité de l'IA avant 2027 ?
Oui
13% chance
$124,789 Vol.
$124,789 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
13% chance
$124,789 Vol.
$124,789 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Persistent legislative gridlock and limited consensus on comprehensive federal AI safety requirements have kept major bills from advancing to enactment. Multiple measures addressing frontier model risks, audits, and oversight advanced through House committees in mid-2026 and entered Senate negotiations in September, yet partisan differences, state preemption disputes, and industry input have stalled floor action ahead of midterms. Executive branch priorities favoring voluntary frameworks over new mandates have further reduced momentum. With fewer than four months remaining in 2026 and no completed markup or vote on a broad safety package, traders assign high probability to no enactment before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Volume
$124,789Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Persistent legislative gridlock and limited consensus on comprehensive federal AI safety requirements have kept major bills from advancing to enactment. Multiple measures addressing frontier model risks, audits, and oversight advanced through House committees in mid-2026 and entered Senate negotiations in September, yet partisan differences, state preemption disputes, and industry input have stalled floor action ahead of midterms. Executive branch priorities favoring voluntary frameworks over new mandates have further reduced momentum. With fewer than four months remaining in 2026 and no completed markup or vote on a broad safety package, traders assign high probability to no enactment before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$124,789Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Persistent legislative gridlock and limited consensus on comprehensive federal AI safety requirements have kept major bills from advancing to enactment. Multiple measures addressing frontier model risks, audits, and oversight advanced through House committees in mid-2026 and entered Senate negotiations in September, yet partisan differences, state preemption disputes, and industry input have stalled floor action ahead of midterms. Executive branch priorities favoring voluntary frameworks over new mandates have further reduced momentum. With fewer than four months remaining in 2026 and no completed markup or vote on a broad safety package, traders assign high probability to no enactment before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes