Global seismicity rates, with roughly 10–15 magnitude 6.0+ events expected worldwide each month according to long-term USGS catalogs, remain the dominant factor shaping trader views for the brief window through August 31. Recent activity reinforces this baseline: a 7.7 quake struck Indonesia on August 14, a 7.4 event hit Colombia on August 10, and a 6.0 occurred in the South Sandwich Islands region on August 12, all consistent with ongoing subduction along the Ring of Fire and other plate boundaries. No major aftershock sequences or unusual swarm activity have been reported in the past week that would markedly alter near-term probabilities. USGS real-time catalogs and rapid moment-tensor solutions will provide the authoritative data for resolution, with traders monitoring for any new M6+ detections in high-background regions such as Indonesia, the Philippines, or Japan.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOù un tremblement de terre de 6,0 + se produira-t-il d'ici la fin du mois d'août ?
Où un tremblement de terre de 6,0 + se produira-t-il d'ici la fin du mois d'août ?
NOUVEAU
3 sept. 2026
Indonésie
100%
Japon
34%
Chili
28%
Philippines
28%
États-Unis
17%
Mexique
29%
$7,492 Vol.
Indonésie
$3,083 Vol.
100%
Japon
$602 Vol.
34%
Chili
$144 Vol.
28%
Philippines
$1,914 Vol.
28%
États-Unis
$1,329 Vol.
17%
Mexique
$421 Vol.
29%
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."Global seismicity rates, with roughly 10–15 magnitude 6.0+ events expected worldwide each month according to long-term USGS catalogs, remain the dominant factor shaping trader views for the brief window through August 31. Recent activity reinforces this baseline: a 7.7 quake struck Indonesia on August 14, a 7.4 event hit Colombia on August 10, and a 6.0 occurred in the South Sandwich Islands region on August 12, all consistent with ongoing subduction along the Ring of Fire and other plate boundaries. No major aftershock sequences or unusual swarm activity have been reported in the past week that would markedly alter near-term probabilities. USGS real-time catalogs and rapid moment-tensor solutions will provide the authoritative data for resolution, with traders monitoring for any new M6+ detections in high-background regions such as Indonesia, the Philippines, or Japan.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
Marché ouvert : Aug 11, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$7,492Date de fin
3 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2026, 6:03 PM ETSource de résolution
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."Global seismicity rates, with roughly 10–15 magnitude 6.0+ events expected worldwide each month according to long-term USGS catalogs, remain the dominant factor shaping trader views for the brief window through August 31. Recent activity reinforces this baseline: a 7.7 quake struck Indonesia on August 14, a 7.4 event hit Colombia on August 10, and a 6.0 occurred in the South Sandwich Islands region on August 12, all consistent with ongoing subduction along the Ring of Fire and other plate boundaries. No major aftershock sequences or unusual swarm activity have been reported in the past week that would markedly alter near-term probabilities. USGS real-time catalogs and rapid moment-tensor solutions will provide the authoritative data for resolution, with traders monitoring for any new M6+ detections in high-background regions such as Indonesia, the Philippines, or Japan.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
Volume
$7,492Date de fin
3 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2026, 6:03 PM ETSource de résolution
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Global seismicity rates, with roughly 10–15 magnitude 6.0+ events expected worldwide each month according to long-term USGS catalogs, remain the dominant factor shaping trader views for the brief window through August 31. Recent activity reinforces this baseline: a 7.7 quake struck Indonesia on August 14, a 7.4 event hit Colombia on August 10, and a 6.0 occurred in the South Sandwich Islands region on August 12, all consistent with ongoing subduction along the Ring of Fire and other plate boundaries. No major aftershock sequences or unusual swarm activity have been reported in the past week that would markedly alter near-term probabilities. USGS real-time catalogs and rapid moment-tensor solutions will provide the authoritative data for resolution, with traders monitoring for any new M6+ detections in high-background regions such as Indonesia, the Philippines, or Japan.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Y aura-t-il exactement 3 tremblements de terre de magnitude 6,5 ou plus dans le monde du 10 août au 16 août ?
96%
Oui
Y aura-t-il exactement 0 tremblements de terre de magnitude 6,5 ou plus dans le monde du 17 août au 23 août ?
43%
Oui
Y aura-t-il entre 14 et 16 tremblements de terre de magnitude 7,0 ou plus dans le monde en 2026 ?
41%
Oui
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