Recent global seismicity remains consistent with long-term averages, with USGS data recording multiple magnitude 6.0+ events in August 2026, including a 7.7 and 6.9 in Indonesia and a 7.4 in Colombia. These occurred along active subduction zones in the Ring of Fire, where tectonic plate convergence drives frequent large quakes; historical patterns show Indonesia and surrounding regions account for a disproportionate share of M6+ events. No reliable short-term prediction exists for exact timing or location, though ongoing aftershock sequences and regional fault activity elevate near-term odds in tectonically active areas like Indonesia, Japan, and parts of South America. Traders should monitor daily USGS earthquake catalogs for any new M6+ detections through August 31, as resolution hinges strictly on verified magnitude thresholds and geographic criteria within the remaining window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOù un tremblement de terre de 6,0 + se produira-t-il d'ici la fin du mois d'août ?
Où un tremblement de terre de 6,0 + se produira-t-il d'ici la fin du mois d'août ?
NOUVEAU
3 sept. 2026
Indonésie
99%
Japon
35%
Chili
28%
Philippines
30%
États-Unis
18%
Mexique
25%
$8,611 Vol.
Indonésie
$4,188 Vol.
99%
Japon
$602 Vol.
35%
Chili
$144 Vol.
28%
Philippines
$1,914 Vol.
30%
États-Unis
$1,329 Vol.
18%
Mexique
$435 Vol.
25%
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."Recent global seismicity remains consistent with long-term averages, with USGS data recording multiple magnitude 6.0+ events in August 2026, including a 7.7 and 6.9 in Indonesia and a 7.4 in Colombia. These occurred along active subduction zones in the Ring of Fire, where tectonic plate convergence drives frequent large quakes; historical patterns show Indonesia and surrounding regions account for a disproportionate share of M6+ events. No reliable short-term prediction exists for exact timing or location, though ongoing aftershock sequences and regional fault activity elevate near-term odds in tectonically active areas like Indonesia, Japan, and parts of South America. Traders should monitor daily USGS earthquake catalogs for any new M6+ detections through August 31, as resolution hinges strictly on verified magnitude thresholds and geographic criteria within the remaining window.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
Marché ouvert : Aug 11, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$8,611Date de fin
3 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2026, 6:03 PM ETSource de résolution
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."Recent global seismicity remains consistent with long-term averages, with USGS data recording multiple magnitude 6.0+ events in August 2026, including a 7.7 and 6.9 in Indonesia and a 7.4 in Colombia. These occurred along active subduction zones in the Ring of Fire, where tectonic plate convergence drives frequent large quakes; historical patterns show Indonesia and surrounding regions account for a disproportionate share of M6+ events. No reliable short-term prediction exists for exact timing or location, though ongoing aftershock sequences and regional fault activity elevate near-term odds in tectonically active areas like Indonesia, Japan, and parts of South America. Traders should monitor daily USGS earthquake catalogs for any new M6+ detections through August 31, as resolution hinges strictly on verified magnitude thresholds and geographic criteria within the remaining window.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
Volume
$8,611Date de fin
3 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2026, 6:03 PM ETSource de résolution
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent global seismicity remains consistent with long-term averages, with USGS data recording multiple magnitude 6.0+ events in August 2026, including a 7.7 and 6.9 in Indonesia and a 7.4 in Colombia. These occurred along active subduction zones in the Ring of Fire, where tectonic plate convergence drives frequent large quakes; historical patterns show Indonesia and surrounding regions account for a disproportionate share of M6+ events. No reliable short-term prediction exists for exact timing or location, though ongoing aftershock sequences and regional fault activity elevate near-term odds in tectonically active areas like Indonesia, Japan, and parts of South America. Traders should monitor daily USGS earthquake catalogs for any new M6+ detections through August 31, as resolution hinges strictly on verified magnitude thresholds and geographic criteria within the remaining window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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