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icon for Lequel de ces démocrates sera le premier à annoncer une course à la présidence ?
Politique·Président

Lequel de ces démocrates sera le premier à annoncer une course à la présidence ?

icon for Lequel de ces démocrates sera le premier à annoncer une course à la présidence ?
Politique·Président

Lequel de ces démocrates sera le premier à annoncer une course à la présidence ?

Andy Beshear 29%

Gavin Newsom 19.9%

Pete Buttigieg 14%

Kamala Harris 13%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Andy Beshear 29%

Gavin Newsom 19.9%

Pete Buttigieg 14%

Kamala Harris 13%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Andy Beshear

$1,880 Vol.

29%

Gavin Newsom

$2,758 Vol.

20%

Pete Buttigieg

$580 Vol.

14%

Kamala Harris

$504 Vol.

13%

Ro Khanna

$383 Vol.

9%

Rahm Emanuel

$512 Vol.

8%

Josh Shapiro

$306 Vol.

4%

Jon Ossoff

$306 Vol.

2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$391 Vol.

2%

Jon Stewart

$364 Vol.

<1%

Stephen A. Smith

$284 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No Democratic candidates have formally announced 2028 presidential bids as of August 2026, leaving the field open and supporting "Other" as the leading outcome in trader consensus. Potential contenders such as Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear and California Governor Gavin Newsom have drawn attention through media speculation and polling on electability, with Beshear often highlighted for his record in a Republican-leaning state. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and former Vice President Kamala Harris appear in early surveys and discussions of the primary field, alongside figures like Ro Khanna. The Democratic National Committee's July 2026 proposal for early 2028 primary windows in states including South Carolina and Nevada has shaped timelines for positioning, though no major endorsements or formal declarations have shifted probabilities significantly in recent weeks.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.

The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.

An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.

If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,270
Date de fin
31 déc. 2027
Marché ouvert
Jul 9, 2026, 9:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No Democratic candidates have formally announced 2028 presidential bids as of August 2026, leaving the field open and supporting "Other" as the leading outcome in trader consensus. Potential contenders such as Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear and California Governor Gavin Newsom have drawn attention through media speculation and polling on electability, with Beshear often highlighted for his record in a Republican-leaning state. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and former Vice President Kamala Harris appear in early surveys and discussions of the primary field, alongside figures like Ro Khanna. The Democratic National Committee's July 2026 proposal for early 2028 primary windows in states including South Carolina and Nevada has shaped timelines for positioning, though no major endorsements or formal declarations have shifted probabilities significantly in recent weeks.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.

The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.

An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.

If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,270
Date de fin
31 déc. 2027
Marché ouvert
Jul 9, 2026, 9:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Connexes

icon for Pete Buttigieg annoncera-t-il une candidature à la présidence avant 2028 ?

Pete Buttigieg annoncera-t-il une candidature à la présidence avant 2028 ?

83%
Oui
icon for Tucker Carlson annoncera-t-il une candidature présidentielle avant 2027 ?

Tucker Carlson annoncera-t-il une candidature présidentielle avant 2027 ?

16%
Oui
icon for Gavin Newsom annoncera-t-il une candidature présidentielle d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?

Gavin Newsom annoncera-t-il une candidature présidentielle d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?

10%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Lequel de ces démocrates sera le premier à annoncer une course à la présidence ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 11 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Andy Beshear » à 28%, suivi de « Gavin Newsom » à 20%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 28¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 28% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Lequel de ces démocrates sera le premier à annoncer une course à la présidence ? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Jul 9, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Lequel de ces démocrates sera le premier à annoncer une course à la présidence ? », parcourez les 11 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Lequel de ces démocrates sera le premier à annoncer une course à la présidence ? » est « Andy Beshear » à 28%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 28% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Gavin Newsom » à 20%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Lequel de ces démocrates sera le premier à annoncer une course à la présidence ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.