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Politique·Venezuela

Les États-Unis déclareront-ils officiellement la guerre au Venezuela d'ici... ?

icon for Les États-Unis déclareront-ils officiellement la guerre au Venezuela d'ici... ?
Politique·Venezuela

Les États-Unis déclareront-ils officiellement la guerre au Venezuela d'ici... ?

$1,242,803 Vol.

31 déc. 2025
Polymarket

$1,242,803 Vol.

Polymarket

30 juin 2026

$477,377 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Venezuela through an act of Congress between December 15, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Venezuela through an act of Congress between December 15 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.The January 2026 U.S. military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife has shaped trader assessments of any formal war declaration, as the Trump administration has consistently framed the strikes as a targeted law-enforcement action against narco-terrorism rather than an initiation of hostilities. Subsequent developments include the swearing-in of interim President Delcy Rodríguez, the reestablishment of diplomatic and consular relations in March 2026, and U.S. support for oil-sector reforms alongside partial sanctions relief. Congressional authorization for broader military engagement has not been sought, and public statements emphasize stability, economic recovery, and a transition process over sustained conflict. With no scheduled votes, summits, or escalatory triggers currently on the horizon, attention centers on whether ongoing bilateral engagement and internal Venezuelan political adjustments could further reduce the likelihood of an official declaration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Venezuela through an act of Congress between December 15, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.

The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,242,803
Date de fin
30 juin 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 2:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Venezuela through an act of Congress between December 15, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Venezuela through an act of Congress between December 15, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Venezuela through an act of Congress between December 15 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.The January 2026 U.S. military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife has shaped trader assessments of any formal war declaration, as the Trump administration has consistently framed the strikes as a targeted law-enforcement action against narco-terrorism rather than an initiation of hostilities. Subsequent developments include the swearing-in of interim President Delcy Rodríguez, the reestablishment of diplomatic and consular relations in March 2026, and U.S. support for oil-sector reforms alongside partial sanctions relief. Congressional authorization for broader military engagement has not been sought, and public statements emphasize stability, economic recovery, and a transition process over sustained conflict. With no scheduled votes, summits, or escalatory triggers currently on the horizon, attention centers on whether ongoing bilateral engagement and internal Venezuelan political adjustments could further reduce the likelihood of an official declaration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Venezuela through an act of Congress between December 15, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.

The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,242,803
Date de fin
30 juin 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 2:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Venezuela through an act of Congress between December 15, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.

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Questions fréquentes

« Les États-Unis déclareront-ils officiellement la guerre au Venezuela d'ici... ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 30 juin 2026 » à 1%, suivi de « 31 décembre » à 0%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 1¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 1% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Les États-Unis déclareront-ils officiellement la guerre au Venezuela d'ici... ? » a généré $1.2 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Dec 15, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Les États-Unis déclareront-ils officiellement la guerre au Venezuela d'ici... ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

C'est un marché très ouvert. Le leader actuel pour « Les États-Unis déclareront-ils officiellement la guerre au Venezuela d'ici... ? » est « 30 juin 2026 » à seulement 1%, avec « 31 décembre » juste derrière à 0%. Aucun résultat ne dominant clairement, les traders voient cela comme très incertain, ce qui peut présenter des opportunités de trading uniques. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel, alors ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Les États-Unis déclareront-ils officiellement la guerre au Venezuela d'ici... ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.