**Tropical Storm Norbert, located in the eastern Pacific near 18°N 132°W with maximum sustained winds of 45–50 knots (52–58 mph) as of early September 13, 2026, faces increasingly unfavorable conditions that limit intensification.** National Hurricane Center forecasts indicate little change or slight fluctuations over the next day amid mid-level dry air and west-southwesterly vertical wind shear, followed by steady weakening. The storm is projected to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low within about 60 hours and dissipate thereafter, remaining well below the 64-knot (74 mph) hurricane threshold on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Recent track history shows Norbert briefly reached around 65 mph before weakening, consistent with an asymmetric wind field and intermittent convection bursts that have not overcome environmental headwinds. Model consensus supports this trajectory, with no strong signals for rapid intensification or sustained growth. These factors underpin the market’s 76% implied probability for “No,” reflecting trader consensus that current steering patterns, thermodynamic constraints, and the storm’s westward motion into cooler, drier air make further strengthening unlikely before dissipation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa tempête tropicale Norbert se transformera-t-elle en ouragan ?
La tempête tropicale Norbert se transformera-t-elle en ouragan ?
Oui
36% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
21 sept. 2026
Oui
36% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
21 sept. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.**Tropical Storm Norbert, located in the eastern Pacific near 18°N 132°W with maximum sustained winds of 45–50 knots (52–58 mph) as of early September 13, 2026, faces increasingly unfavorable conditions that limit intensification.** National Hurricane Center forecasts indicate little change or slight fluctuations over the next day amid mid-level dry air and west-southwesterly vertical wind shear, followed by steady weakening. The storm is projected to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low within about 60 hours and dissipate thereafter, remaining well below the 64-knot (74 mph) hurricane threshold on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Recent track history shows Norbert briefly reached around 65 mph before weakening, consistent with an asymmetric wind field and intermittent convection bursts that have not overcome environmental headwinds. Model consensus supports this trajectory, with no strong signals for rapid intensification or sustained growth. These factors underpin the market’s 76% implied probability for “No,” reflecting trader consensus that current steering patterns, thermodynamic constraints, and the storm’s westward motion into cooler, drier air make further strengthening unlikely before dissipation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Marché ouvert : Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$228Date de fin
22 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Résolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.**Tropical Storm Norbert, located in the eastern Pacific near 18°N 132°W with maximum sustained winds of 45–50 knots (52–58 mph) as of early September 13, 2026, faces increasingly unfavorable conditions that limit intensification.** National Hurricane Center forecasts indicate little change or slight fluctuations over the next day amid mid-level dry air and west-southwesterly vertical wind shear, followed by steady weakening. The storm is projected to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low within about 60 hours and dissipate thereafter, remaining well below the 64-knot (74 mph) hurricane threshold on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Recent track history shows Norbert briefly reached around 65 mph before weakening, consistent with an asymmetric wind field and intermittent convection bursts that have not overcome environmental headwinds. Model consensus supports this trajectory, with no strong signals for rapid intensification or sustained growth. These factors underpin the market’s 76% implied probability for “No,” reflecting trader consensus that current steering patterns, thermodynamic constraints, and the storm’s westward motion into cooler, drier air make further strengthening unlikely before dissipation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Volume
$228Date de fin
22 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Résolveur
0x65070BE91...**Tropical Storm Norbert, located in the eastern Pacific near 18°N 132°W with maximum sustained winds of 45–50 knots (52–58 mph) as of early September 13, 2026, faces increasingly unfavorable conditions that limit intensification.** National Hurricane Center forecasts indicate little change or slight fluctuations over the next day amid mid-level dry air and west-southwesterly vertical wind shear, followed by steady weakening. The storm is projected to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low within about 60 hours and dissipate thereafter, remaining well below the 64-knot (74 mph) hurricane threshold on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Recent track history shows Norbert briefly reached around 65 mph before weakening, consistent with an asymmetric wind field and intermittent convection bursts that have not overcome environmental headwinds. Model consensus supports this trajectory, with no strong signals for rapid intensification or sustained growth. These factors underpin the market’s 76% implied probability for “No,” reflecting trader consensus that current steering patterns, thermodynamic constraints, and the storm’s westward motion into cooler, drier air make further strengthening unlikely before dissipation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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