Bipartisan congressional opposition, highlighted by the Senate's unanimous July 2026 resolution against any pardon or clemency for Ghislaine Maxwell, stands as the primary driver of the 95% implied probability against a Trump pardon by end of 2026. Maxwell's appeals have been exhausted following an August federal court rejection of her habeas petition, while Justice Department leadership has signaled no recommendation for relief tied to her 2021 sex-trafficking conviction. Trump has described the matter as unconsidered and unapproached, though he retains executive authority. Analysts note substantial political costs from survivor advocacy and Epstein files scrutiny, with no formal pardon process advancing; late developments such as shifting administration priorities could still influence outcomes before the deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
5% chance
$759,313 Vol.
$759,313 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Gagnez 3.25%
Oui
5% chance
$759,313 Vol.
$759,313 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Gagnez 3.25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Bipartisan congressional opposition, highlighted by the Senate's unanimous July 2026 resolution against any pardon or clemency for Ghislaine Maxwell, stands as the primary driver of the 95% implied probability against a Trump pardon by end of 2026. Maxwell's appeals have been exhausted following an August federal court rejection of her habeas petition, while Justice Department leadership has signaled no recommendation for relief tied to her 2021 sex-trafficking conviction. Trump has described the matter as unconsidered and unapproached, though he retains executive authority. Analysts note substantial political costs from survivor advocacy and Epstein files scrutiny, with no formal pardon process advancing; late developments such as shifting administration priorities could still influence outcomes before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ET
Volume
$759,313Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETRésolveur
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Bipartisan congressional opposition, highlighted by the Senate's unanimous July 2026 resolution against any pardon or clemency for Ghislaine Maxwell, stands as the primary driver of the 95% implied probability against a Trump pardon by end of 2026. Maxwell's appeals have been exhausted following an August federal court rejection of her habeas petition, while Justice Department leadership has signaled no recommendation for relief tied to her 2021 sex-trafficking conviction. Trump has described the matter as unconsidered and unapproached, though he retains executive authority. Analysts note substantial political costs from survivor advocacy and Epstein files scrutiny, with no formal pardon process advancing; late developments such as shifting administration priorities could still influence outcomes before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$759,313Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETRésolveur
0x157Ce2d67...Bipartisan congressional opposition, highlighted by the Senate's unanimous July 2026 resolution against any pardon or clemency for Ghislaine Maxwell, stands as the primary driver of the 95% implied probability against a Trump pardon by end of 2026. Maxwell's appeals have been exhausted following an August federal court rejection of her habeas petition, while Justice Department leadership has signaled no recommendation for relief tied to her 2021 sex-trafficking conviction. Trump has described the matter as unconsidered and unapproached, though he retains executive authority. Analysts note substantial political costs from survivor advocacy and Epstein files scrutiny, with no formal pardon process advancing; late developments such as shifting administration priorities could still influence outcomes before the deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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